As investors panic about the rising chance of a global recession, this 'canary in the coal mine' suggests they may be right
- A data point often considered a "canary in the coalmine" for the global economy had a second consecutive dreadful month, according to preliminary data released Thursday.
- South Korean exports fell 11.7% compared to the previous year in February, following a nearly 15% drop in January.
- "Leading indicators, particularly out of China - Korea's main export market - point to steeper declines in the coming months, with no real relief in sight until the latter stages of 2019," Freya Beamish, lead Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
- South Korean trade data is often held up as a canary in the coalmine for the global economy, as it often acts as an early warning sign for trouble ahead.
A data point often considered a "canary in the coalmine" for the global economy had a second consecutive dreadful month, according to preliminary data released Thursday.
South Korean exports, a data set often held up as a bellwether for wider economic sentiment, fell sharply in February, continuing a drop seen in the first month of the year.
Exports dropped 11.7% year-on-year in the first 20 days of the month, the Korean Export Service said Thursday. That follows a drop of 14.6% in the same period in January.
"February's 20-day data suggest that exports contracted by 5.0% y/y for the full month, marking only a marginal improvement from the 5.8% fall in January," Freya Beamish, lead Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in an email.
"Leading indicators, particularly out of China - Korea's main export market - point to steeper declines in the coming months, with no real relief in sight until the latter stages of 2019."
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The data is usually released before the first trading session of the month in Asia, which makes it the first of the world's major economic indicators to be drop each month. While Thursday's data is not for a complete month, partly due to Lunar New Year celebrations, it signals that when the full month's data is made public in early March, things won't look great.
Because South Korea's exports are heavily exposed to China and Japan - the world's second and third largest economies - it is consider to have strong predictive power.
In addition to being an early report, the South Korean export data is also considered a leading indicator for world trade, meaning it tends to augur what's happening in trade globally.
The drop in South Korean exports comes at a febrile time for the global economy. China's economy slowed to its lowest annual growth since 1990 last year, while trade tensions with the US are ongoing, and investors around the world worry about the future of the global economy.
A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey released this week showed that investors are more worried about the possibility of a global recession than anything else right now.