Blackstone's Byron Wien unveils his big surprises for 2018
- Blackstone Vice Chairman and investing ace Byron Wien is out with his list of 10 "surprises" for 2018.
- These predictions, he says, have a better-than-50% chance of happening, but the average investor assigns them only about a one-in-three chance.
- The list, now in its 33rd year, includes a 10% stock market correction, populism worsening, and Republicans losing big in the midterm elections.
Blackstone vice chairman and investing stalwart Byron Wien is out with his list of surprises for 2018.
Wien defines his surprises as things that have a better-than-50% chance of happening, but which the average investor anticipates a less than 30% likelihood of occurring.
2017 was not the strongest year in terms of how his forecasts played out. When Business Insider spoke to Wien in September, he acknowledged that he had been "dead wrong" on the dollar, wrong on inflation, and on the German election (Angela Merkel won a fourth term a few days later).
President Donald Trump definitely did not soften his tone, the euro didn't reach parity against the dollar (it's at a three-year high), and crude oil sneaked above $60 per barrel in the final week of 2017.
But the economy did achieve 3% growth, the S&P 500 zoomed past 2,500 in October, and Japan's stock market had a strong year.
Here's what Wien thinks could happen in 2018: