Here are the most likely March Madness upsets according to Las Vegas
No. 10 Butler (-1) vs. No. 7 Arkansas
The No. 10 Butler Bulldogs are favored over the No. 7 Arkansas Razorbacks despite being the lower seed. FiveThirtyEight gives the Bulldogs a 60% chance to prevail in this one. If you're looking for an easy way to spice up your first round, this is your only chance in the tournament to pick an upset without backing an underdog.
No. 10 Oklahoma (PK) vs. No. 7 Rhode Island
No. 10 Oklahoma had a rocky second half of the season, but they are a straight pick'em against No. 7 Rhode Island. URI is a strong team, but they are coming off of a loss in their conference championship, and Oklahoma will have the best player on the court in Trae Young.
No. 10 Texas (+1) vs. No. 7 Nevada
The Texas Longhorns are barely underdogs against the Nevada Wolfpack in their first-round matchup. The Longhorns have five wins against ranked opponents on the year, whereas the Wolfpack lost against its only ranked opponent of the season. Not to mention, Texas head coach Shaka Smart knows how to manage a team through the tournament.
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (+2.5) vs. No. 6 MIami
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago comes into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation, having won 10 straight games en route to their Missouri Valley Conference championship. Meanwhile, No. 6 Miami will be playing without leading scorer and rebounder Bruce Brown Jr. due to injury. I like Loyola-Chicago as a pick to make it to the Sweet 16 — if anything, I'm worried about them being too trendy.
No. 11 San Diego State (+3.5) vs. No. 6 Houston
While No. 11 San Diego State are the biggest underdogs we've discussed so far here, 3.5 points isn't all that much in the realm of basketball gambling — it's almost just a bet on intentional fouls at the end of a game. Houston is no pushover, having beaten Wichita State twice this year and responsible for one of Cincinnati's four losses on the year. But the Aztecs come into the game hot, as winners of nine straight.
No. 9 Florida State (+1) vs. No. 8 Missouri
Matchups between No. 8 and No. 9 seeds are almost always a coin flip anyways, but worth noting here that the odds reflect that as well. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight's model gives the No. 9 Seminoles a whopping 71% chance at victory, so this could be another easy one for you to slot into your bracket.
No. 9 Alabama (+2.5) vs. No. 8 Virginia Tech
Again, these matchups are mostly a coin flip, but if you feel you're fine-tuning your bracket, Alabama is a team to watch in the first round. Pick the Tide to Roll, and you'll be backing the best player on the court that day — Bama guard Collin Sexton, who is expected to be a lottery pick in this year's NBA Draft.
No. 12 New Mexico State (+5) vs. No. 5 Clemson
As we look for slightly more dramatic upsets, the spreads will inevitably get a bit wider. That said, the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup is one of the most-fabled in college basketball. New Mexico State has already proven this year that they can hang with the top teams in college basketball, beating a then-sixth-ranked Miami rather handily back in December. Meanwhile, Clemson enters the tournament on shaky ground, having lost five of their past eight games.
No. 12 Davidson (+6) vs. No. 5 Kentucky
Davidson doesn't have a chance of flying under the radar since the ascendance of Stephen Curry during the 2008 tournament. A decade later, the team has another sharpshooter — Peyton Aldridge — who has shot over 70% from beyond the arc in three of his past five games, making six or more of his threes in each game. Against any other No. 5 seed besides Kentucky, this line would likely be even lower.
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (+11.5) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Now we get to the deep cuts. While the biggest upsets in the tournament are the hardest to predict, they also almost always happen — in 22 of the past 25 years, a team seeded 2-4 has fallen in the first round to their lower seeded counterpart. Texas Tech hasn't won a tournament game since 2005, while Stephen F. Austin is more than comfortable in the underdog role. Since 2014, SFA has two tournament wins as a double-digit seed in the first round.
No. 14 Bucknell (+13.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan State
This spread doesn't particularly indicate that Bucknell is likely to win in the first round, but they have a puncher's chance. Zach Thomas is one of the best players you'll find from a smaller school, and despite Tom Izzo's aura of March mysticism, he and the Spartans have lost in the first round of the tournament five times since 2002. An early exit would not be unprecedented.
Now check out our best bets to make before March Madness tips off on Thursday.
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