The upcoming Apple Arcade subscription service carries a similar model to Game Pass and PlayStation Now, promising a library of more than 100 games for a fixed monthly fee. Apple has reportedly invested more than $500 million in the launch of its gaming subscription; part of that funding was used to retain several independent studios to develop exclusive games for Apple Arcade.
However, Ward thinks Apple Arcade is more about monetizing the mobile marketplace rather than competing with the likes of Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft.
"Apple is just starting its game subscription business and while it sounds like those games will be of fairly high-quality in a mobile context and will be mobile exclusives, at least for a limited window of time post-launch, the chance that there will be a large exodus from the Xbox, PlayStation, or Switch communities into the Arcade camp is practically zero in the next five years," Ward said.
Apple Arcade games will work across iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple TV. The service will not feature in-game ads, and all future game updates will be free. Apple plans to launch the service this fall, but the price and release date have not been set.
Read more: Everything we know about Apple Arcade, the new subscription service bringing exclusive games to iPhones and Macs
Even if Apple doesn't find an audience among traditional gamers, Apple Arcade can provide a new stream of revenue from the millions of people who spend time playing free games on their iPhones, according to Michael Goodman, director of television and media strategies for Strategy Analytics.
"The whole reason mobile advertising and in-game purchases took off is because people didn't want to pay for games. So they had to find some other way to monetize and grow the marketplace," Goodman said. "For a long time, the mobile marketplace was stagnant because people didn't want to pay for games."
At worst, Apple Arcade would provide its subscribers with a higher level of quality control than what is typically available on the App Store, which is overrun with hundreds of free games that rely on microtransactions and invasive ads to drive revenue.