Tua Tagovailoa has only completed 22 passes in four games this season, but that is because Alabama was so dominant he had the luxury of sitting out for the second half of many of the Tide's games.
Clemson should present a tougher challenge than Bama's schedule up to this point, keeping him on the field for the majority of the game. With Tua's high completion percentage, he may only need 25 attempts to hit this over.
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Taglovailoa has also been safe with the ball this year, with only four interceptions thus far. While the Clemson secondary will be one of the better units the Crimson Tide have faced this year, Tua doesn't miss many throws and forces even fewer of them.
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In the three previous playoff meetings between these two teams, no team has scored in the first five minutes and 30 seconds of action.
This is a more dangerous bet this year, as the Alabama offense has built its identity around an ability to jump out to quick, early leads. But we're still betting that the championship jitters will take a little while to shake off, leaving the game still tied 0-0 for at least the first few minutes.
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Another great trend to bet this game — Alabama to score first. In all three previous meetings between these two teams, the Crimson Tide have struck first, regardless of who received the opening kickoff, or who went on to win the game.
You have to lay a bit of extra money to get the bet in, but between Bama's fast-acting offense and their trend of scoring first against Clemson, it feels worth the risk.
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Betting Alabama in the first half has been the most profitable bet in college football this season, and it would be a shame not to bet it in this final opportunity of the year.
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This is another solid trend to play, and this time we're getting positive odds on our bet.
Through their first three playoff matchups, neither Clemson nor Alabama has scored three straight times. This includes the Crimson Tide's dominant win over the Tigers in the semifinal last season — even in a 24-6 win, Bama never struck three times in a row.
These games usually play out like a chess match between Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban, and with both coaches so good at adjusting and responding, putting up three unanswered scores is no easy task.
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Laying $200 to win $100 is never easy, but both of these teams are so protective of the ball, it's hard to imagine a turnover in this game, let alone one getting away for a touchdown.
Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence have thrown eight interceptions combined this season — unless one of them is under major duress, I don't see them giving up a pick-six.
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This bet feels almost suspiciously easy, to the point that almost left it off the list, but Alabama senior running back Damien Harris needs just 49 yards or more to cash for over bettors on Monday night.
Harris has failed to reach that mark just twice all year.
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Alabama's defense is one of the best in the country, but Clemson running back Travis Etienne has a knack for breaking at least one big run per game.
This season, Etienne has a run of at least 20 yards in 12 of his teams 14 games. He should be good for one more big rush on Monday night.
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Between two great defenses, championship jitters, and a field in questionable condition after some rain hit Santa Clara over the weekend, 57.5 feels like a pretty big total for this game.
Both teams keep the clock running with reliable rushing attacks and high-completion passing games — I expect this game to turn into a battle of possession, which usually bodes well for under bettors.
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This game is a toss-up, and with the Tigers getting almost a touchdown, they're a tempting pick against the spread.
But Alabama's dominance has been the story of the season, and it's difficult to imagine this game ending without Saban, Tagovailoa, and the Tide lifting the trophy once again.
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