MORGAN STANLEY: These 16 stocks could get cut in half - or worse

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MORGAN STANLEY:  These 16 stocks could get cut in half - or worse

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  • Morgan Stanley expects the US stock market to consolidate the secular bull run next year.
  • But the analysts say 16 companies are "facing challenges that are independent of cyclical trends" and could lose more than half their value in the next 12-18 months.
  • The firm has an "underweight" rating for all of the mentioned stocks, and says their risks are larger than rewards.

Morgan Stanley has released the stocks its analysts think could lose more than half their value within the next 12 to 18 months.

These companies are "facing challenges that are independent of cyclical trends," the bank's analysts said.

They expect the US stock market to consolidate the secular bull run next year and for US economic growth to slow down, followed by a re-acceleration in 2020. While the macro outlook seems favorable, analysts identified some companies with secular challenges including market-share loss, rising competition, deteriorating end-markets, cost pressures, and others.

To compile the list, Morgan Stanley's equity-research team started with the stocks its analysts rated as "underweight." The bank then focused on stocks with an "unfavorable risk-reward skew," looking for stocks where the cons outweighed the pros.

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Here are the 16 stocks Morgan Stanley says stand to lose the most from secular pressures in the next 12-18 months:

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16. Macy’s

16. Macy’s

Ticker: M

Sector: Retail

Market Cap: $10 billion

Downside to bear: 50.9%

Year-to-date performance: +30%

Source: Morgan Stanley

15. Patterson Companies

15. Patterson Companies

Ticker: PDCO

Sector: Healthcare

Market Cap: $2.4 billion

Downside to bear: 52.5%

Year-to-date performance: -33%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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14. United Natural Foods

14. United Natural Foods

Ticker: UNFI

Sector: Retail

Market Cap: $1.12 billion

Downside to bear: 54.2%

Year-to-date performance: -57%

Source: Morgan Stanley

13. Kohl’s

13. Kohl’s

Ticker: KSS

Sector: Retail

Market Cap: $10.95 billion

Downside to bear: 54.3%

Year-to-date performance: +20%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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12. Henry Schein

12. Henry Schein

Ticker: HSIC

Sector: Healthcare

Market Cap: $12.88 billion

Downside to bear: 55%

Year-to-date performance: +26%

Source: Morgan Stanley

11. Waddell & Reed Financial

11. Waddell & Reed Financial

Ticker: WDR

Sector: Financials

Market Cap: $1.57 billion

Downside to bear: 55.1%

Year-to-date performance: -6%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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10. Juniper Networks

10. Juniper Networks

Ticker: JNPR

Sector: Technology

Market Cap: $9.55 billion

Downside to bear: 60.3%

Year-to-date performance: +2%

Source: Morgan Stanley

9. MSG Networks

9. MSG Networks

Ticker: MSGN

Sector: Media

Market Cap: $1.65 billion

Downside to bear: 62.9%

Year-to-date performance: +23%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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8. Fitbit

8. Fitbit

Ticker: FIT

Sector: Financials

Market Cap: $1.36 billion

Downside to bear: 63.4%

Year-to-date performance: -8%

Source: Morgan Stanley

7. Bed Bath & Beyond

7. Bed Bath & Beyond

Ticker: BBBY

Sector: Transportation

Market Cap: $1.79 billion

Downside to bear: 69.1%

Year-to-date performance: -41%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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6. Abercrombie & Fitch

6. Abercrombie & Fitch

Ticker: ANF

Sector: Retail

Market Cap: $1.1 billion

Downside to bear: 69.6%

Year-to-date performance: +7.5%

Source: Morgan Stanley

5. Tenneco

5. Tenneco

Ticker: TEN

Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials

Market Cap: $1.95 billion

Downside to bear: 76.5%

Year-to-date performance: -42%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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4. Avis Budget

4. Avis Budget

Ticker: CAR

Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials

Market Cap: $2.295 billion

Downside to bear: 83.1%

Year-to-date performance: -33%

Source: Morgan Stanley

3. EQT

3. EQT

Ticker: EQT

Sector: Technology

Market Cap: $4.75 billion

Downside to bear: 83.9%

Year-to-date performance: -41%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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2. Seaspan

2. Seaspan

Ticker: SSW

Sector: Transportation

Market Cap: $1.64 billion

Downside to bear: 89.2%

Year-to-date performance: +37%

Source: Morgan Stanley

1. Hertz Global

1. Hertz Global

Ticker: HTZ

Sector: Retail

Market Cap: $1.61 billion

Downside to bear: 89.6%

Year-to-date performance: -20%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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