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Every year, at least one team seeded 10th or lower captures the attention of college basketball fans across the country. Those teams become the Cinderella story of the NCAA Tournament, making it to the second weekend before typically falling to a more traditional basketball powerhouse.
The trend is consistent as almost every year at least one double-digit seeds find a way to the Sweet 16.
Below is a look at the nine double-digit seeds that Nate Silver's model at FiveThirtyEight currently gives the best chances of making it to the Sweet 16.
No. 12 New Mexico State (18% chance to make the Sweet 16)
No. 12 New Mexico State is the double-digit seed with the best chance of making a Sweet 16 run according to FiveThirtyEight. According to Silver's model, the Aggies made to the second weekend of the tournament in 18% of the simulations. They'd have to go through No. 5 Clemson and likely No. 4 Auburn to get there. In Las Vegas, New Mexico State is just a five-point underdog to the Tigers in the first round.
No. 10 Butler (17%)
The No. 10 Butler Bulldogs have proven themselves before in the NCAA Tournament, and have a bit of Cinderella potential in them again this year. They have a 17% chance to make it to the Sweet 16. Possibly more surprising, FiveThirtyEight gives them a 71% chance of beating No. 7 Arkansas in the first round, despite being the lower seed.
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (14%)
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago will likely be one of the most popular upset picks to make the Sweet 16 this year, and with good reason. In the first round, they'll face a No. 6 Miami team that has already lost its leading scorer and rebounder Bruce Brown Jr. due to injury. If Loyola wins that game, they'll be just one win away from the second weekend of the tournament.
No. 10 Texas (13%)
FiveThirtyEight has the Longhorns as the favorite in their first-round matchup against the No. 7 Nevada Wolfpack, despite being the lower seed. To make the Sweet 16, they would likely have to beat a Cincinnati team that has only lost four times this year, but plays what some consider to be a softer schedule in the AAC.
No. 11 San Diego State (9%)
The No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs are another team to consider when picking an upset team in the Sweet 16. They'd have to go through No. 6 Houston and then likely No. 3 Michigan to get there.
No. 11 St. Bonaventure (9%)
The No. 11 St. Bonaventure Bonnies are an interesting pick to make the Sweet 16, as they've already started their NCAA Tournament run with a win over UCLA in the First Four round. A play-in team hasn't made it to the second weekend since Tennessee did it in 2014, but teams that do make a run have proven to be successful, as no one could forget VCU's fantastic run to the Final Four back in 2011.
No. 12 Davidson (8%)
No. 10 Davidson hasn't recorded an NCAA Tournament win since Stephen Curry carried them all the way to the Elite Eight in 2008. FiveThirtyEight is giving them an 8% shot at making it through to the Sweet 16 this year, and just a 2% chance at matching the success of Curry's old team.
No. 10 Providence (8%)
No. 10 Providence is a good candidate for a first-round upset over No. 7 Texas A&M, but would also have to topple No. 2 North Carolina to make it to the Sweet 16. Providence has not reached the second weekend of the tournament since 1997, when they were also a No. 10 seed, beating Marquette and Duke in the first two rounds to get there.
No. 10 Oklahoma (7%)
No. 10 Oklahoma has a 7% chance to make it to the Sweet 16, but math might not be able to compute for having the best player on the court. If Trae Young can show the same dominance from earlier in the season, upsetting No. 7 Rhode Island and No. 2 Duke en route to a Cinderella run is not beyond possibility.
