Will the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election be a deja vu of the Lok Sabha election?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Shiv Sena President Uddhav Thackeray and Chief of Maharashtra ,Devendra Fadnavis, during a BJP - Shivsena joint rally at BKC ground, in Mumbai ahead of the electionsBCCL
  • The Maharashtra Assembly election is being held within 6 months of the Lok Sabha election coming to an end.
  • Data from the past 20 years shows a possible correlation between the winners of the elections due to short gap.
  • If the pattern continues, it could be a strong indicator the BJP and the Shiv Sena winning the Assembly election this year.
The 2019 battle for Maharashtra state government is turning out to be a battle of alliances over its 288 seats. The fact that this election comes mere mere five months after the Lok Sabha election, gives it an interesting perspective and spin.

At one corner is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena combine, and in the other is Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Then again, this has been the face of politics in Maharashtra for the past 20 years.

Aside from voter turnout, the results of the Maharashtra Assembly election are also heavily influenced by the Lok Sabha election.

Data from the past 20 years shows a possible correlation. The party that tends to win the Lok Sabha election also tends to come into power on the regional stage.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won by a considerable margin over their opponents. In terms of vote share, the two parties were able to secure 50.88% of the vote share, accounting for 48 seats.

If the pattern continues, it is a strong indicator the BJP and the Shiv Sena could win the Assembly election this year.

Recent history

In 2004, the tables turned with the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance winning 42.72% of the vote share during the Lok Sabha elections, only marginally coming out above Congress-NCP’s 42.08% share.

And, their victory was short lived with the Congress-NCP alliance coming out ahead in the Assembly election with 39.81% votes to their names against the BJP-Shiv Sena’s 33.64%.

The winners may not have been consistent but their vote shares in both the elections showed marginal differences.

In 2009, the pattern of vote shares during the Lok Sabha and Assembly election being similar got stronger. The Congress and NCP gained a vote share of 38.89% while the BJP and Shiv Sena managed to get 35.17% votes during the Lok Sabha election.

A few months later during the Assembly election, the Congress-NCP alliance came out ahead with 37.38% of the vote share against BJP-Shiv Sena’s 30.28%.

In 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance captured 41 Lok Sabha seats and around 50% of the votes. And, during the Assembly election — even though they didn’t start out as an alliance but later joined forces — the alliance won with 47.16% vote share.

Going further back

In 1999, the Lok Sabha election and the Maharashtra Assembly election was held simultaneously.

Led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP-NDA alliance won on the national stage but in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP alliance beat out the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance with a vote share of 51.29%.

In the state election, the Congress-NCP alliance came out ahead — yet again — with 49.8% of the votes as the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance trailed with 31.87% vote share. But it should be noted that Congress and the NCP only joined hands to form the government after the results were announced.

Prior to 1999, the Assembly election in Maharashtra took place before the Lok Sabha election. And, the trend was reversed.

The BJP and Shiv Sena had come together to form an alliance for the first time at the turn of the century. They were able to secure 29.19% of the vote share against Congress’ 31% during the state election.

And, during the Lok Sabha election they improved their vote share to 38.64% while Congress didn’t show any remarkable movement hitting 34.78%.

Experts believe that the combined effect ring-wing nationalism in the country after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, communal riots in Mumbai from 1992 to 1993, and the Mumbai serial bomb blasts 1993 led to alliance’s win.

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