A gay millennial veteran is taking advantage of Joe Biden's downturn in the moderate lane, and could pull off an upset in Iowa

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Democratic presidential candidate South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks during the fourth U.S. Democratic presidential candidates 2020 election debate at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio.

• South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg got a lot of attention for his assertive performance and incisive attacks at the most recent Democratic debate.
• But the real threat he poses to the rest of the field comes not from his TV zingers but from the operation he's building up in Iowa, where he now has 22 field offices - the most out of all the candidates. 
• Buttigieg jockeying to the front of the Democratic primary field is particularly notable given his unique background as a millennial war veteran and mayor - and how much it differs from those of the three leading contenders. 
• Buttigieg could also be giving former Vice President Joe Biden a real run for his money in the moderate lane of the Democratic primary. Currently, Buttigieg has $23 million in cash on hand compared to just $8.9 million for Biden.
• A strong performance in Iowa certainly won't guarantee Buttigieg the nomination, but it could help establish him as a credible choice for future races, and keep him viable through Super Tuesday. 
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South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg got a lot of attention for his assertive performance and incisive attacks at the most recent Democratic debate, but the real threat he poses to the rest of the field comes not from his TV zingers but from the operation he's building up in Iowa. 

At the October 15 debate in Ohio, Buttigieg successfully landed punches on Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren over healthcare, on Rep. Tulsi Gabbard over foreign policy, and on former Rep. Beto O'Rourke over his plan to institute a mandatory buyback on assault weapons. 

While attacking fellow candidates can sometimes backfire, Buttigieg knocked his opponents down a peg. He also positioned himself as a candidate with both a transformative vision for his candidacy and with what he argues are more pragmatic policy plans than what other top candidates are proposing. 

In contrast to Warren and Sanders' plans to institute a government-run Medicare for All healthcare system, Buttigieg is campaigning on a public option that would allow people to buy-in to Medicare, which he calls "Medicare for All who want it." 

Buttigieg hit Warren over her evasiveness on the specifics of her plan, saying, "We heard it tonight. A yes or no question that didn't get a yes or no answer. This is why people are so frustrated."

Buttigieg's campaign raised over $1 million and received record traffic to his website in the first 24 hours after his standout debate performance, indicating that his message is resonating with voters - a promising sign for his campaign as the first primaries and caucuses near.

Read more: Pete Buttigieg tried to save his campaign by taking swings at Elizabeth Warren at the 4th Democratic debate

When the mayor and Afghanistan war veteran, entered the race in January, his unique message of generational change and his personal charisma earned lots of attention from both the media and the Democratic donor class. 

Buttigieg jockeying to the front of the Democratic primary field ahead of over moderate candidates like Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet is particularly notable given his unique background - and how much it differs from those of the three leading contenders. 

At age 37, he's significantly younger than the leading candidates: Sen. Bernie Sanders is 78, former Vice President Joe Biden is 76, and Warren is 70, and all have faced questions and doubts over their ages at the October debate. 

Read more: Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard, the only military vets on the Democratic debate stage, duke it out over US action in Syria

Buttigieg would be the first millennial president, and he's compelled voters and donors alike by articulating the power of having a president from a generation that served in wars, as he did, and currently deals with exorbitant student debt. 

On the campaign trail, Buttigieg has been open about the student debt burden his own household faces - his husband, Chasten, is a middle school teacher still paying off his graduate school debt.

Compared to Biden and Sanders, who have been in national politics for decades, and Warren, a well-known scholar before going into politics, Buttigieg is a relative newcomer to the national scene.

While the only office he's held is the Mayor of South Bend - a city of around 100,000 - it hasn't held Buttigieg back. Instead, he's argued that his hands-on experience as a municipal executive keeping a city running and solving problems daily makes him more and not less qualified to be president.

Buttigieg's polling performance stagnated a bit after the initial honeymoon period in the spring and early summer of 2019, but he's making a big comeback - and it's all focused in Iowa, the first state to hold a 2020 caucus on February 2. 

And more importantly, he could be giving Biden a real run for his money in the moderate lane of the Democratic primary. 

Buttigieg is currently polling the best in Iowa, where Real Clear Politics' polling average shows him tied with Sanders for second place at 14.3%. 

Read more: Pete Buttigieg gets a boost in Iowa after several months of stagnating polls

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (L) and former Vice President Joe Biden talk during the second night of the first Democratic presidential debate on June 27, 2019 in Miami, Florida.

Buttigieg is going all-in on Iowa in an effort to eclipse Biden 

In a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Iowa caucus-goers, Buttigieg placed in third place at 13% behind Biden at 18% and Warren at 17%. 

In the June version of the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Biden lead with 24% support in Iowa with Sen. Kamala Harris in third at 16%, Warren at 13%, and Buttigieg in a distant fifth place with 6% support. 

A strong performance in Iowa certainly won't guarantee Buttigieg the nomination, but it could help establish him as a credible choice for future races, and keep him viable through Super Tuesday. 

While Biden entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner, he has recently seen his stature in the race diminished due to a number of factors, including the meteoric rise of Warren, a progressive candidate offering a vision of "bold, structural change" that has appealed to many voters. 

Buttigieg's biggest strength lies in fundraising, an area where Biden has struggled during his entire political career and especially this cycle. He brought in $25 million in 2019's second quarter - beating all the other candidates - and raised $19.1 million in the third fundraising quarter that ended on September 30. 

Buttigieg now has $23 million in cash on hand compared to just $8.9 million for Biden, and has been using his cash advantage to make significant investments in the Hawkeye State. Buttigieg has opened 22 Iowa field offices and recently hired almost 100 new staffers in the state compared to 19 offices for Warren and 17 for Biden.

According to The New York Times, Buttigieg and Warren are tied for opening the most field offices in the four early primary states. And according to Insider's SurveyMonkey Audience Polling of the 2020 Democratic primary, 35% of Biden supporters would also be satisfied with Buttigieg as the nominee.

There is one big caveat, however, to Buttigieg attempting to siphon away moderate voters from Biden.

While Biden has lost some support among white voters, he still holds a commanding lead among African-American voters - especially black voters without a college degree - which has persisted throughout the election cycle so far.

Read more: Biden's most loyal supporters are starting to look elsewhere, according to a new Insider poll

Buttigieg, on the other hand, has consistently struggled among non-white voters, and still receives 0% support among black voters, according to the Economist's 2020 Democratic primary poll tracker.  

Biden's strong support among black voters is due to a number of overlapping factors including his association with former President Barack Obama, his close relationships in the community, and the fact that African-American voters tend to both be more ideologically moderate than white ones and more pragmatic in their voting behavior. 

But Buttigieg believes he can prove his mettle among all stripes of voters and demonstrate he can beat Trump with an initially strong showing when it all begins in Iowa. 

"In order to settle the question of electability, the best thing you can do is perform well in an actual election. Iowa's of course the first. And so that's where a lot of our focus is going to go," he told The Times. 

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