The Iowa caucuses were one of the most disastrous elections in political memory - and dragged several campaigns down with them

• The February 3 Iowa caucuses ended up being one of the most disastrous elections in recent political history - and dragged the fortunes several campaigns down with it.
• While the Iowa caucuses have played an important role in winnowing the field, this chaotic meltdown surrounding the reporting of the results yielded no clear winner and sowed uncertainty in the race.
• Former Vice President Joe Biden's poor fourth-place showing in the Iowa caucuses casts serious doubt over the argument that he is best-positioned to beat Trump in a general election.
• Andrew Yang's campaign laid off dozens of staff after he finished with just 1% in Iowa.
• Despite their strong Iowa showings, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg's fortunes in states beyond New Hampshire are unclear.
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Starting the day after President Donald Trump's election in November, Democratic leaders and activists set their sights on Monday's Iowa caucuses as a watershed moment to mobilize their base and begin removing him from office.

But after a series of meltdowns and errors in the reporting of the results that kept snowballing over the course of the week, the Iowa caucuses ended up being one of the most disastrous elections in recent political history - and dragged the fortunes several campaigns down with it.

While the party has now released results from 100% of Iowa's precincts, the current vote breakdown may not hold, and the race most likely won't be officially called for days as the party verifies the results and continues to sort out several outstanding inconsistencies and errors in the data.

By 8 p.m. Central Time on Thursday, the results of the Iowa Democratic caucuses with 100% of precincts reporting showed Sen. Bernie Sanders narrowly leading Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the popular vote and statistically tied in state-delegate equivalents (SDEs), the metric usually used to determine the winner.

With his Iowa tie and strong polling in later primary states, a huge base of grassroots support throughout the country, and a stunning $25 million fundraising haul from the month of January alone, Sanders is arguably in the strongest position going into New Hampshire and the rest of the primary.

Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have played an important role in winnowing the field and determining which candidates are viable going forward, setting the tone for the rest of the race.

But the days of chaos and confusion surrounding the Iowa caucuses resulting in no clear winner being declared have not only bred distrust in the process, but thrown the entire race into a state of uncertainty.

Biden's campaign is in jeopardy after a disappointing fourth-place finish

For his entire campaign, Biden's core argument has been that given his stature as a former vice president and his widespread appeal to voters of all stripes, he is the best position to defeat Trump in a general election.

For a while, the strategy was a smart bet, given that Democratic primary voters routinely rank nominating a candidate who can beat Trump above all else. But to be successful, it relies on Biden actually winning elections.

In Iowa, Biden trailed three of his opponents, earning just 13.7% of the statewide vote and 16% of state delegate equivalents, and coming in seven percentage points behind third-place finisher Elizabeth Warren.

As several analysts pointed out, Iowa was never expected to be a prime pickup opportunity for Biden, given that the state's Democratic primary electorate is considerably whiter, more college-educated, and left-leaning than his base and the Democratic primary electorate.

But still, earning just 13% of the statewide vote is a troubling sign for his future prospects - and a major blow to his core argument that he is most electable.

While Biden still holds an undisputed lead among African-American, older, and non-college educated voters, which gives him an edge in Southern primary states including South Carolina, the extremely fluid and unpredictable nature of the Democratic field means winning those voters and states is not a guarantee for him.

To make matters worse, multiple outlets including the Washington Post have reported that Biden's team is worried that another poor performance in a crucial early primary state could exacerbate his already-worrisome fundraising struggles and send his chances of winning the nomination into a downward tailspin.

Andrew Yang's campaign is experiencing a chaotic staff shakeup

Despite his meteoric rise nationally and stellar fundraising, Yang received fewer than 1,800 votes in the Iowa caucuses, earning just 1% of the statewide vote and 1% of SDEs.

In the wake of Yang's exceedingly poor performance in Iowa, Insider's Jake Lahut confirmed that Yang's campaign abruptly laid off dozens of staffers at the state and national level, a series of firings first reported by Politico.

While campaign manager Zach Graumann told Insider that the layoffs were part of a planned restructuring after the Iowa caucuses, the cutbacks still sowed skepticism over whether Yang could translate enthusiasm online for his campaign into votes.

Other sources told Politico that due to a series of miscommunications between the national and state-level campaigns, some staffers found out they had been laid off through word of mouth or by having their email and Slack accounts deactivated, casting doubt about the campaign's level of organization.

Elizabeth Warren's campaign appears to be punting in Nevada

After a third-place finish in Iowa, Warren is betting on a strong showing in New Hampshire to boost her struggling campaign as Sanders dominates the progressive lane.

Warren still has a chance of exceeding expectations in New Hampshire, where she's currently tied with Biden for third place in Real Clear Politics' average of New Hampshire polls.

But she appears to be severely scaling back the resources she's investing in the Nevada caucuses, which take place on February 22, diminishing her chances of making a top-two finish in any of the first three primary states

As other candidates ramp up their spending in Nevada, Warren canceled a planned $375,000 ad buy in the state.

On Wednesday, Politico reported on a mass exodus of half a dozen staffers from her Nevada team - all women of color who said their experience of the campaign was "a toxic work environment in which minorities felt tokenized and senior leadership was at loggerheads."

Individual stories detailing internal staff strife may not ultimately affect many votes on their own. But as Politico noted, Nevada and its sizeable Latino voting bloc pose the first, crucial opportunity for candidates to prove they can win over voters of color, an area where Warren currently lags behind Biden and Sanders.

Buttigieg's path out of New Hampshire is unclear

Buttigieg, 38, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was barely known when he entered the race in January 2019, but experienced a meteoric rise on the national scene over the past year, culminating in a tie for first place in the Iowa caucuses.

Preliminary New Hampshire Democratic primary tracking polls show Buttigieg has already received a huge bounce from his strong Iowa showing. In Real Clear Politics' average of New Hampshire polls, Buttigieg surged from polling at 14% on average on February 2 to 22% on average on February 7.

Luckily for Buttigieg, the electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire are tailor-made for a candidate like him. Like Buttigieg's base of support, they are disproportionately white and higher-educated than the rest of the Democratic base.

In past presidential cycles, a first or second-place finish in Iowa or New Hampshire was reliably a ticket to winning the nomination.

But given the highly splintered and volatile nature of the Democratic field this year, the traditional formulas and maxims of previous presidential campaigns don't necessarily apply this time around, and won't guarantee a victory for Buttigieg.

Despite his skill as an immensely talented fundraiser and campaigner, Buttigieg lags behind Sanders among young voters and trails Biden among African-American, Latino, and working-class voters, continuing to poll at or close to 0% among black voters.

Even if Biden collapses with another fourth-place finish in New Hampshire, Buttigieg still faces serious competition in the moderate lane from another former mayor, billionaire Michael Bloomberg.

Bloomberg is skipping the first four states altogether and pumping resources into delegate-rich Super Tuesday and later primary states. Now polling in double digits both in those states and nationally, Bloomberg's unprecedented candidacy threatens to upend the state of the field.

Read more:

Biden's prospects are dimmed after a 'gut punch' in Iowa, and he may not see a strong showing until South Carolina

Andrew Yang's campaign lays off staff at headquarters and field offices after dismal Iowa showing

Bernie Sanders declares victory in the Iowa caucuses moments after the DNC demands a recanvass of the results

Iowa caucus volunteers reportedly weren't given any training on how to use the voting app that caused the results to be delayed