ROSENBERG: Here are 4 big obstacles facing the stock market
Advertisement
Screenshot via Bloomberg TV
Advertisement
It was a rough day for stocks.
In a note to clients on Wednesday, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg took a step back to highlight four of the biggest obstacles facing the bull market.
Here's what Rosenberg outlined:
- Earnings momentum has slowed. Bottom-up consensus forecasts for S&P 500 operating earnings growth in the first quarter have fallen to -3.1% from +5.3% year-over-year. "The second quarter has been sliced to -0.7% YoY as well, so technically speaking we could be looking at a mild profits recession here in the US - this is down from the +5.9% estimate at the start of the year," he wrote.
- Valuations are high. The trailing P/E ratio is 20x, compared to the long-run norm of 16x. "It actually is not all that uncommon to see the equity market up in years when EPS growth is flat-ish (as the consensus now believes for 2015) but that requires price-to-earnings multiple expansion."
- Economic data has been disappointing. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is at the lowest level since August 2011, and in that month, the S&P 500 dipped in a way that led some to think the economic cycle was turning.
- The strong dollar is hurting profits. "There is such a thing as too much of a good thing," Rosenberg wrote, and the dollar bull market is not over. He advised investors to avoid sectors that have EPS forecasts below zero, including Utilities (-6.6%) and Telecom (-0.8%.)
Advertisement
- India is an oasis of growth amid a slower global economic landscape, witnessing a once-in-a-generation growth: G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant
- Mutual fund stake in NSE-listed cos at all time high; FPIs at 11-yr low
- Gold prices today: Yellow metal climbs Rs 230 while silver jumps Rs 700
- Indegene IPO: Company details to risk factors, all you need to know
- Indegene IPO subscribed 1.67 times on Day 1 of offer
- Nothing Phone (2a) blue edition launched
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market