More and more COVID-19 models show lifting lockdowns too early can cause tens of thousands of deaths — and Georgia jumped the gun

• Epidemiological models increasingly show that lifting lockdowns too early can lead to tens of thousands of preventable COVID-19 deaths.
• Without maintaining strong social-distancing measures, the US death toll could breach 100,000 by mid-May.
• Georgia reopened more quickly than any other state, and that could cost it thousands of lives.
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After weeks of economically devastating lockdowns, state and county officials are contemplating how and when to safely reopen for business — even as the US topped 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases on Tuesday.

Experts have warned against lifting lockdowns without sufficient testing, contact tracing, isolation, and critical-care capacity in place. But some governors have already begun to ease restrictions.

Texas will allow theaters, malls, and restaurants to reopen at limited capacity starting Friday. Idaho and Montana are planning to open the doors to houses of worship. Oklahoma is set to reopen sports venues, among other businesses, in May.

More and more epidemiological models show, however, that the consequences of ignoring experts' warnings could be severe, resulting in thousands of preventable deaths. Georgia, which reopened nonessential businesses this week, could be the earliest state to learn that firsthand.

Without social distancing, more than 100,000 could die by mid-May

The US's national death count will likely keep rising to some degree, no matter what the state and federal governments do.

But models that incorporate strong social distancing project that the death count's growth will slow in the next four weeks, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Without strong social distancing, though, the models show the toll breaching 100,000 deaths by mid-May.

"If you lift the restriction too soon, a second wave will come, and the damage will be substantial both medically and economically. We don't want to throw away the sacrifices we have made for weeks now," Turgay Ayer, a research director for healthcare analytics at Georgia Institute of Technology, told The Daily Beast.

The main model cited by the White House coronavirus task force shows a more optimistic forecast, but it was revised upward this week. It now estimates a death count of 74,073 by August 4 — an increase from an April 21 projection of 65,976 deaths by August.

The US death toll had surpassed 58,900 as of Wednesday.

Georgia's new freedom could cost thousands of lives

Georgia has loosened its lockdown more quickly than any other state. Gyms, barbershops, hair and nail salons, spas, and tattoo parlors there resumed business on Friday. Theaters and restaurants followed on Monday.

But Gov. Brian Kemp's decision to let those businesses open already could cause thousands of deaths, according to new modeling of Georgia's COVID-19 trajectory.

As of Friday, when Kemp announced the reopenings, Georgia had reported 871 deaths due to COVID-19. But the model, created by epidemiologists and computer scientists at Harvard and MIT and reported by The Daily Beast on Tuesday, showed that if the state resumes 50% of pre-pandemic interpersonal contact, it could see 1,604 to 4,236 deaths by June 15. By contrast, if the state had left its lockdown in place, the models showed that the death count would have grown to between 1,004 and 2,922.

If Georgia resumes 100% of pre-pandemic activity, it could see 4,279 to 9,748 deaths by June 15, according to the models.

Gov. Kemp's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"What we find, no matter what we assume, is that reopening on Monday was just too early," Jackson Killian, a PhD student at Harvard who worked on the models, told The Daily Beast. "If you let people go out and have contact again now, you end up causing deaths that could have been avoided."

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