These 20 stocks are about to experience an explosive end-of-year rally, JPMorgan says

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These 20 stocks are about to experience an explosive end-of-year rally, JPMorgan says

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  • A late-year rally related to progress on trade relations between the US and China is likely, according to derivatives strategists at JPMorgan.
  • The firm identified stocks with cheap out-of-the-money options that traders can buy to profit from price gains.

The stock market has taken a beating in the final stretch of 2018. This means opportunities abound to find stocks that will be the biggest beneficiaries of a rebound.

"With investors now positioned defensively, and leverage rapidly reduced, there is an elevated risk of market reversion into year-end, thus an elevated risk of an October 'rolling bear market' turning into a 'rolling squeeze higher' into yearend," JPMorgan derivatives strategists said in a recent note.

This rally may be triggered by share buybacks, portfolio rebalancing, the mid-term elections, and progress on trade. That fourth factor would be the most unexpected catalyst for stock gains - and it hinders on President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping having a fruitful discussion at the late-November G20 summit, the strategists said.

JPMorgan recommended the list of Russell 1000 stocks below as having cheap, limited-loss out-of-the-money call options (~110%), or bets that their prices will rise. Analyses of their earnings-call transcripts suggest that they're the most exposed to trade risks - and the strategists like their reward-to-risk profiles.

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Additionally, JPMorgan screened only for stocks where it sees a more than 15% upside to their six-month high.

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20. Trinity Industries

20. Trinity Industries

Ticker: TRN

6-month high: $39.10

Upside to 6-month high: 37%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.35

Strike: $31.50

Source: JPMorgan

19. FedEx

19. FedEx

Ticker: FDX

6-month high: $265.53

Upside to 6-month high: 20.5%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.72

Strike: $242.50

Source: JPMorgan

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18. Caterpillar

18. Caterpillar

Ticker: CAT

6-month high: $158.92

Upside to 6-month high: 31%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $1.75

Strike: $133

Source: JPMorgan

17. Deere

17. Deere

Ticker: DE

6-month high: $159

Upside to 6-month high: 17.4%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.20

Strike: $149

Source: JPMorgan

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16. Royal Caribbean

16. Royal Caribbean

Ticker: RCL

6-month high: $104.73

Upside to 6-month high: 26.2%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $1.73

Strike: $115

Source: JPMorgan

15. Acuity Brands

15. Acuity Brands

Ticker: AYI

6-month high: $125.64

Upside to 6-month high: 31.4%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.10

Strike: $140

Source: JPMorgan

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14. Parker-Hannifin

14. Parker-Hannifin

Ticker: PH

6-month high: $190.58

Upside to 6-month high: 25.7%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.70

Strike: $165

Source: JPMorgan

13. Johnson Controls

13. Johnson Controls

Ticker: JCI

6-month high: $190.58

Upside to 6-month high: 25.7%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.59

Strike: $35

Source: JPMorgan

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12. Fluor

12. Fluor

Ticker: FLR

6-month high: $60.25

Upside to 6-month high: 37.4%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.85

Strike: $48

Source: JPMorgan

11. Aptiv

11. Aptiv

Ticker: APTV

6-month high: $102.93

Upside to 6-month high: 34%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $1.50

Strike: $85

Source: JPMorgan

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10. Micron Technology

10. Micron Technology

Ticker: MU

6-month high: $62.62

Upside to 6-month high: 66%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.75

Strike: $41.50

Source: JPMorgan

9. Law Research

9. Law Research

Ticker: LRCX

6-month high: $206.91

Upside to 6-month high: 46%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.75

Strike: $41.50

Source: JPMorgan

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8. United Rentals

8. United Rentals

Ticker: URI

6-month high: $120.07

Upside to 6-month high: 44.7%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.80

Strike: $132

Source: JPMorgan

7. Mohawk Industries

7. Mohawk Industries

Ticker: MHK

6-month high: $124.73

Upside to 6-month high: 80.3%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $3

Strike: $135

Source: JPMorgan

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6. Microchip Technology

6. Microchip Technology

Ticker: MCHP

6-month high: $103.31

Upside to 6-month high: 57.1%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $1.60

Strike: $72.50

Source: JPMorgan

5. Teradyne

5. Teradyne

Ticker: TER

6-month high: $44.25

Upside to 6-month high: 28.4%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.85

Strike: $38

Source: JPMorgan

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4. Applied Materials

4. Applied Materials

Ticker: AMAT

6-month high: $55.53

Upside to 6-month high: 68.9%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.86

Strike: $36

Source: JPMorgan

3. Western Digital

3. Western Digital

Ticker: WDC

6-month high: $88.50

Upside to 6-month high: 105.5%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $1.19

Strike: $47.50

Source: JPMorgan

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2. XPO Logistics

2. XPO Logistics

Ticker: XPO

6-month high: $114.54

Upside to 6-month high: 28.1%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $2.50

Strike: $100

Source: JPMorgan

1. Arconic

1. Arconic

Ticker: ARNC

6-month high: $114.54

Upside to 6-month high: 28.1%

Cost of the Dec. 110% Call: $0.60

Strike: $22

Source: JPMorgan

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