US signals major change on North Korea after South Korea's president agrees to meet Kim Jong Un

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Mike Pence (bottom right) at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics near Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong.

• US Vice President Mike Pence signalled a major shift in US policy on North Korea after leaving the Winter Olympics.
• The Trump administration will now talk to Kim Jong Un's regime without preconditions.
• Pence's announcement follows North Korea extending an invitation to South Korean President Moon Jae In to be the first-ever head of state to meet Kim Jong Un.
• North Korea put on a charm offensive at the Olympics, but sources said it has a weak position, and may only be trying to buy time or put off an eventual war.

US Vice President Mike Pence signalled a major shift in US policy on North Korea while returning home from the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, where he had an icy stand-off with Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong.

Speaking to the Washington Post's Josh Rogin aboard Air Force Two on his flight home, Pence said the US would participate in direct talks with North Korea's leadership without preconditions - something experts have long urged the administration to do.

Until now, the Trump administration had laid out a strategy called "maximum pressure," whereby the US and its allies use all possible tools to make life hard on North Korea, forcing them to agree to denuclearize and agree to talks.

On Sunday, Pence added an element, calling the new strategy "maximum pressure and engagement at the same time."

"The point is, no pressure comes off until they are actually doing something that the alliance believes represents a meaningful step toward denuclearization," Pence told the Post. "So the maximum pressure campaign is going to continue and intensify. But if you want to talk, we'll talk."

North Korea's Olympic charm offensive

Grigory Dukor / Reuters

North Korea's cheerleaders at the Winter Olympics.

The major change in US policy comes after a North Korean charm offensive hijacked coverage of South Korea's Olympics, something Pence vowed to thwart during his trip.

But beyond dispatching his younger sister, who heads up the country's propaganda department, Kim Jong Un offered a material concession to South Korean President Moon Jae In.

The North Korean delegation to the Olympics proposed the first-ever meeting between North Korea's shadowy leader another head of state, to take place with Moon "at an early date."

In making the request, North Korea did not demand South Korea stop military exercises with the US, it did not demand the withdrawal of US forces from the Peninsula, but it also did not agree to stop its nuclear program.

Cheong Seong Chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, told NK News that Kim's concession sought to help Pyongyang in "escaping from a serious international isolation."

As the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign heats up, it increasingly appears effective as fuel prices soar and businesses on both sides of the China-North Korea border fold.

"Kim Jong Un moved away from the original negative stance on the inter-Korean summit and change his stance of holding the summit without conditions," said Cheong.

Pence said the US strategy now involves following up inter-Korean talks with US-North Korea talks, and that Moon pushed the North Koreans to talk to the US at the Olympics.

Despite North Korea's concessions, the outlook is bleak

REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

A North Korean farmer.

Even though the pain inflicted on North Korea by the US and international community looks to be bearing fruit, few experts project a good outcome.

"The fundamentals have not changed," Andrei Lankov, a director of the Korea Risk Group told NK News. Talks "can help to win time," said Lankov. "It can postpone the revival of highly dangerous tensions, for a few weeks or a few months and this is good."

But as Moon sat next to Kim and watched the Olympic skaters, protesters outside burned North Korean flags. North Korea's olive branch comes amid news that the US is considering a strike on Kim's forces and increased scrutiny of its human rights record by Trump. Because of North Korea's perceived weakness, one could doubt the sincerity of their talks, but the US's recent record isn't so great either.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said months ago that the US would talk to North Korea only to have the White House contradict him later. Though Pence told the post he and Trump had talked every day during his trip and were on the same page, a tweet from the president could reverse everything.

Whether North Korea's leadership sincerely wants to thaw relations with the south, or whether they want to buy time and delay a "bloody nose" from the US, remains to be seen.