ADB trims economic growth forecast for developing Asia; retains India FY23 GDP growth at 7%

• The developing Asia's economy will grow 4.2 per cent this year and 4.6 per cent next year, ADB said.
• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecasts for the developing Asia region, amid a worsened global outlook.
• Growth in China is expected to slow in 2022 to 3 per cent against a 3.3 per cent expansion predicted in a September report.

The Manila-based bank maintained the gross domestic product growth projections for India at 7 per cent this fiscal year and 7.2 per cent next fiscal year. The Bank also added even with the downgraded forecast, developing Asia will still do better than other regions globally, both in terms of growth and inflation.

The developing Asia's economy will grow 4.2 per cent this year and 4.6 per cent next year, ADB said in a regular supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022, released on Wednesday. ADB estimated in September that the economy of the region would grow 4.3 per cent in 2022 and 4.9 per cent in 2023.

Monetary policy tightening by central banks globally and in the region, the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurring lockdowns in the People's Republic of China (PRC) are slowing down developing Asia's recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, ADB said.

Restrictions under the "zero-Covid" approach, along with a struggling property market, have led to another downgrade of the PRC's growth outlook.

"Asia and the Pacific will continue to recover, but worsening global conditions mean that the region's momentum is losing some steam as we head into the new year," said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

"Governments will need to work together more closely to overcome the lingering challenges of Covid-19, combat the effects of high food and energy prices--especially on the poor and vulnerable--and ensure a sustainable, inclusive economic recovery."

ADB lowered its forecast for inflation in the developing Asia and the Pacific this year to 4.4 per cent from 4.5 per cent. However, the bank raised its projection for next year to 4.2 per cent from 4 per cent, due to lingering inflationary pressures from energy and food.

Growth in China, which is the largest economy in Asia, is expected to slow in 2022 to 3 per cent against a 3.3 per cent expansion predicted in a September report.

The forecast for next year was cut to 4.3 per cent from 4.5 per cent, due to the global slowdown, according to the Bank. Gross domestic product growth projections for India were maintained at 7 per cent this fiscal year and 7.2 per cent next fiscal year, according to the ADB.

Even with the downgraded forecasts, the ADB expects developing Asia will still do better than other regions globally, both in terms of growth and inflation. ADB's growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year was raised to 5.5 per cent from 5.1 per cent, amid robust consumption and tourism recovery in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Projections for next year, however, were lowered to 4.7 per cent from 5 per cent due to weakening global demand.

The growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia this year was upgraded to 4.8 per cent from 3.9 per cent, while the projection for the Pacific was raised to 5.3 per cent from 4.7 per cent, due to a strong tourism recovery in Fiji.
ADO is published every April, with an update in September and brief supplements published normally in July and December. Developing Asia refers to the bank's 46 developing members.

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