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1. Place your bets.
Starting today, the six big US banks (Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo) report their Q4 and year-end earnings.
If you're interested in instant feedback on the actual numbers, check our colleagues over on Markets Insider.
For me, earnings calls are where the juiciest stuff is. But instead of a boring preview on what to expect, I figured I'd have some fun by setting gambling lines on some of the biggest storylines heading into earnings.
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A quick refresher on betting: If the odds of something to occur are +110, that means a $100 bet wins you $110 in profit. On the flip side, if something is -110 that means you need to wager $110 for a $100 profit.
So a line set at +500 would be a massive longshot ($100 bet wins you $500 in profit) and a -500 line is a huge favorite ($500 bet only wins you $100).
Does that make sense? If not, I'm starting to question how you work in finance.
OK, let's get into the biggest storylines and their odds:
David Solomon discusses the recent headcount reduction at Goldman Sachs. (-500)
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Background: Solomon will almost certainly field questions about this week's layoffs, which impacted around 6.5% of the bank's total headcount. What'll be interesting is if he teases even more cuts coming down the line as the bank looks to cut costs.
Charlie Scharf details what's next for Wells Fargo's mortgage business. (-150)
Background: The bank got ahead of this one by announcing its plans to step back from mortgages earlier this week. But a lot of questions still remain, and Scharf hasn't shied away from bemoaning the problems he sees in the industry these days. Is there an eventual plan to sunset the entire business? Where will Wells look to pivot to make up that revenue? This seems like a key talking point, but how much color we get remains to be seen.
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Jane Fraser maps out where she wants to take the bank's wealth business. (+250)
James Gorman hints at retirement and a potential succession plan. (+500)
Background: The departure of COO Jon Pruzan means that there are three prime candidates to take over for the 64-year-old Gorman: Co-Presidents Ted Pick and Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz, the head of investment management. But will Gorman, who has served as CEO since January 2010 and chairman since January 2012, discuss his succession plans? Executives don't like to acknowledge their mortality, so it seems like a longshot.
Brian Moynihan makes a prediction on a potential recession. (-110)
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Background: Banks with a large consumer footprint are often viewed as an indicator of the wider economy, so Moynihan is likely to get at least some questions about what his bank's performance means for this will-they-won't-they recession.
6. Starter home? More like stay-at-your-parents' home! If you're planning on buying your first home in 2023, just give up now. The so-called entry-level home is essentially disappearing from the market. More on why we're all destined to be renters forever.
7. Stripe's internal valuation takes another dip. The payments-focused fintech saw its internal valuation drop by 11%, according to The Information, the third time since June the startup has made a cut. Click here to read more about what's going on at Stripe.
8. Word is spreading about a settlement with a senior female employee at Tiger Global, and it's making it harder for the firm to raise its money for its newest venture fund, Semafor reports. More details on the settlement here.
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