FUND MANAGER: Trump's take on Reaganomics won't work in America - here's where it will
Reuters
He was talking about companies like Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and - as we now know - he was very right.
His latest presentation, given earlier this month at the Grant's Interest Rate Observer conference in New York City, is worth more than a glance.
It's called "Reagan 2.0: Is it Here?"
In a word: No.
Litinksy told attendees that Trumpenomics - a take on the deregulation and tax cutting measures of 1980s Reaganomics - will not significantly jump-start the American economy.
Why? Most simply because similar policies set against a different backdrop produce different outcomes. Reagan's policies, during a time of stagflation, helped to lower the cost of capital in the US.
Litinsky thinks Trump's will do the opposite.
"Trump's campaign promised to increase infrastructure spending, revitalize domestic manufacturing, improve trade terms, tighten national security, curtail immigration, reduce regulation and lower taxes," Litinsky noted. "These policies are geared to boost economic growth and earnings, but they are likely to increase the cost of capital."
Of course, that's just in the United States. Reagan's lessons are being applied elsewhere and to greater effect.
Enter, India. Since his election in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set about reducing regulation, lowering taxes, controlling inflation, and addressing banking issues (much like Reagan did and, inflation aside, much like Trump means to do).
For Modi, though, the backdrop is correct. And the way Litinsky tells it, there are opportunities for investors who can understand where growth is going. Here's the presentation:
Greg Hoffman contributed to this report.
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