Here's why Google can't kill Chrome OS (yet)

After reports that Google was combining its Android and Chrome operating systems into one, the search advertising giant hit back today with promises that it's planning to support both for a long time.

Google reminded us in a blog entry that it has a five-year commitment to support Chrome devices in the enterprise with automatic updates and features. Which is to say, Chrome devices released this year are guaranteed updates through 2020.

It's similar to, though less comprehensive than, Microsoft's Windows support commitment.

So Google might in fact want to kill Chrome OS. But it can't.

Google's game

Google's response is obviously designed to placate customers, especially the schools and businesses that have invested heavily into the Chromebook as a low-cost, easy-to-manage alternative to Windows laptops or the Apple iPad.

The whole point of Chrome OS is that since it's literally just a web browser running on a commodity computer, it can constantly get better over time. If Google were to suddenly pull support for Chromebooks before that promised five year timeframe, it would make for some very unhappy customers.

But at the same time, Google does in fact say in that blog entry that "we've been working on ways to bring together the best of both operating systems," which seems to support reports that it's working on a third, hybrid Android/Chrome operating system.

Which means that Google is in a precarious position with its Chrome OS strategy and the enterprise.

Enterprises are resistant to any kind of change - even patches and antivirus updates to Microsoft Windows have to go through layers of vetting before they get approved, let alone a full upgrade to the new Windows 10. Things move slowly. (It's why the US Navy spent millions getting Microsoft to still provide support for the fourteen-year-old Windows XP operating system.)

If Google is going to release some kind of Frankenstein operating system in 2017, it'll take a few years after that for its Chromebook customers to take notice. Nobody in the IT department wants to upend the apple cart, especially not for something so unproven.

That means Google is caught in the middle. It's obligated to keep supporting Chrome OS users through the end of their devices' lifespan, especially since they've invested so much already in Google.

Plus, if those customers like their Chromebooks, they're going to want more, which means that they'll expect Google's partners to keep churning them out. Under the current model, every new Chrome device carries with it the expectation of another 5 years of support, extending Google's obligation to keep developing the operating system.

Redefine success

The obvious way forward is for Google to just keep moving the goalposts.

The nice part about the Chromebook is that it's really just the browser: If Google hands over the underlying code for Chrome OS its its partners and says "go to it," then customers get what they want.

And some of that will spill over into the consumer space, with new Chromebooks available and new features, essentially subsidized by the enterprise sales. At least for a while.

Gradually, though, Google can just intensify its focus on Android, taking the strategy we've already tasted with the new Pixel C tablet/laptop hybrid and pushing it harder. Google can leave the partners to make Chromebooks while turning its attention to the next big thing.

Eventually, Google will exert its sheer power to get Android onto more and more cheap laptops and tablets. Thanks to its control over so many of the services at the core of both Android and Chrome, Google will be able to offer Android customers a more "pure" experience.

Android's popularity and sales will grow, and Chrome OS will shrink into a niche business for those that are resistant to change. Either way, Google wins.

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