Putin's war in Ukraine has made Russia a 'liability' whose few friends are 'hardly at the top' of anyone's wishlist'
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Kelsey Vlamis,Erin Snodgrass,John Haltiwanger
Jan 13, 2023, 09:47 IST
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting in Vladivostok, Russia on April 25, 2019.Alexander Zemlianichenko, Pool, File/Associated Press
Criticism from Russia's allies mounted this week, with one Chinese official saying "Putin is crazy."
Some worry Russia may be "more of an albatross than ally," a former US ambassador to NATO said.
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Eleven months since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine, the longtime leader remains in a precarious position with growing discontent among his country's few remaining allies.
"Nobody wants an ally who is a liability, and it's hard to see Putin's Russia as anything else," Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider.
"I think we can see the consequences already in that the most active support is coming from Iran and North Korea — hardly the top of anyone's friend wishlist," he added.
Russia's relationship with some key allies appeared to be on even shakier ground this week. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Tuesday the country had canceled plans to host Russian military drills. Both Armenia and Russia are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance made up of six post-Soviet states that Putin has touted as NATO's counterpart.
"At least this year, these drills won't take place," Pashinyan said, adding the drills would be "inappropriate in the current situation."
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Criticism from Beijing also appeared to intensify, as The Financial Times on Monday reported several Chinese officials tried to distance China from the Ukraine invasion and expressed mistrust in Putin himself.
"Putin is crazy," one unnamed Chinese official told FT. "The invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldn't simply follow Russia."
The US and its allies have issued unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. Finland and Sweden, two historically or militarily non-aligned neutral countries, moved to join NATO. The EU has taken steps to end its reliance on the Russian energy supply. Indeed, the war has united the West against Russia in historic ways.
"Until February 24, Russia and China declared a partnership 'without limits' based on the idea that the west was divided, decadent, and in decline and that the east was rising in power and stature," Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, told Insider. "The invasion changed all that."
"China has been caught between its desire to align with Russia and the realization that it might be more of an albatross than ally," he added.
While China has not offered a full-throated endorsement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it also hasn't significantly reduced ties with Moscow, despite the mounting criticism and recent comments by Chinese officials. Beijing has walked a careful line since the invasion began, at times exhibiting impatience with Russia's war in Ukraine.
The apparent mixed messaging from Beijing could ultimately come down to diplomatic strategy.
"China may be trying to have it both ways," Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe, told Insider.
English said the war benefits Beijing by distracting the West from confrontation with China, while also providing the country with discounted Russian energy. But in order to avoid jeopardizing its trade partnerships with the West, China may want to give the appearance of distancing itself from Russia.
"The key is appear to criticize Russia, in words, but what about their deeds? Their economic support for Russia has not flagged, nor have they altered their official position blaming NATO for the conflict," English said of China. "I'm afraid some analysts are thinking with their hearts, not their heads."
"Putin's allies are not 'turning on him,' only expressing dissatisfaction at the difficulties his war in Ukraine is causing them," he added. "There's a big difference."
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