Israel sees an Iranian 'air force' assembling in Syria - and looks ready to deal it a knockout blow
- Israel is letting on that it sees an Iranian air force forming in Syria, and that it may destroy the force if it seeks to harm Israel.
- Israel stands accused of killing Iranian soldiers in Syria, which it had previously not done directly.
- Iran has announced plans to retaliate.
- But Iran's forces in Syria are completely exposed to Israel's air force, and has now been warned they could be knocked out if they cross the line.
Israel's military on Tuesday apparently let leak a series of stories indicating that it sees an Iranian air force taking place in Syria, and hinting that it may be willing to deal them a knockout blow.
Iran and Israel have clashed in the air recently, with Israel downing an Iranian drone it said flew over its territory with explosives in February, and a long-running campaign of suspected Israeli airstrikes punishing Iranian forces in Syria.
In April, Russia, Syria, and Iran accused Israel of a strike on an airbase in Syria known as Tayfur or T-4 that left as many as 14 dead, and Israel made no effort to deny it. A senior Israeli official told New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman that Iran had opened up a new front in the long-simmering conflict by trying a direct drone attack on Israel.
Friedman reported that the strike in April killed the Iranian colonel who led the drone unit. Iran threatened to retaliate after the strike, but has yet to make good on that.
Iran's growing forces in Syria
On Tuesday, an Israeli security official told Reuters, "The Israeli defense establishment sees" Iranian aircraft in Syria "as the entity that will try to attack Israel, based on Iranian threats to respond to the strike on T-4."
Though Israel doesn't comment on its air incursions into Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear the Jewish state is willing to do whatever necessary to stop Iran's anti-Israel forces creeping closer to its borders, or linking to its aligned forces in Lebanon to potentially arm them.
"The Iranians have been exploiting the chaos of the Syrian civil war to build up military assets there that target Israel, all the while sending advanced weaponry to Lebanon by way of Damascus, also under the fog of war," Tony Badran and Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies wrote in the Wall Street Journal after the February air war between Iran and Israel.
But while Iran has used "the fog of war" in Syria to cover moving as many as 70,000 fighters and tons of military equipment through the country, Israel could crush their forces under that same fog.
Israel positioned to knock out exposed Iranian forces
Roni Daniel, military editor for Israeli TV station Mako, said Israel was signal ling to Iran that its forces in Syria "are totally exposed to us, and if you take action against us to avenge (the T-4 strike) these targets will be very severely harmed," according to Reuters.
"It's vulnerable," Badran previously told Business Insider of Iran's military presence in Syria. "It's exposed to direct US fire, just like it's exposed to direct Israeli fire."
If Israel entered Iranian airspace to strike its military, it would cause a massive international incident and meet backlash from the UN and Arab countries alike.
But, with Iranian forces far from home and in Syria, where greater than 70 countries have either bombed or contributed towards fighting, an Israeli strike can get lost in the noise.
"Israel is headed for escalation," Yaacov Amidror, Netanyahu's former national security adviser, told Tel Aviv radio station 103 FM, according to Reuters. "There could be a very big belligerent incident with Iran and Hezbollah."
As a testament to how big the fighting between Iran and Israel may get, instead of sending its F-15 air superiority fighters to the US' Red Flag, one of the world's best jet fighter training programs, Israel chose to keep them home and on alert.
With Syria's air defenses a push-over target for Israel, and exposed Iranian forces openly wishing death to the Jewish state, it seems a small retaliation from Iran could launch a much bigger conflict.