Former Vice President Joe Biden has been the de facto Democratic frontrunner since launching his third run at the presidency last April.
He came loaded with unparalleled name recognition as former President Barack Obama's right hand man, promising a return to "normalcy" after the three years of tumult and anxiety that have embodied of Donald Trump's presidency.
That's why it was stunning to see him be a complete non-factor in the pivotal first two contests of the Democratic nomination process, finishing a distant fourth in the Iowa caucuses (earning six delegates) and a stunning fifth in the New Hampshire primary with less than 9% of the vote and picking up no delegates at all.
To be sure, Biden's campaign didn't put a tremendous amount of resources in either state, opting to coast on his robust support among African-American voters nationally and his substantial lead in South Carolina - the fourth primary contest after Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
A glaring flaw in that strategy is that since the Iowa caucuses became the launching pad of primary season in 1972, no candidate has been elected president without finishing in the top two of either Iowa or New Hampshire. And while there's been a lot of talk this election cycle about why these two rural, heavily-white states should no longer maintain their exalted status as presidential bellwethers, the expectation-setting of these two contests still matters.
But if "normalcy" is his end-game, and if he truly believes a far-left figure like Sen. Bernie Sanders would hand Trump an easy path to re-election, Biden would be better off just getting out of the race. Quickly.
The Biden 'electability' case is falling apart
At this point, Biden would need to make history to become president. Yet despite serving as the vice president to a historic figure, Biden's never been the history-making type.
To his credit, he's never promised to be that kind of president. There have been whispers from senior advisers in his campaign that he'd more of a caretaker president - he'd provide a bridge between Trump and, presumably, whichever Democrat serves as Biden's VP.
Biden's national electoral appeal really only works for a vice president. His folksy centrism and his extensive time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee made him a natural wingman for Obama, whose soaring rhetoric and inspirational biography launched him ahead of a slew of more experienced candidates - Biden included.
But as a solo act on the national stage, Biden flopped in 2008. And in 1988. And it sure looks like he's going for the faceplant trifecta in 2020.
This time around, Biden's pitch to voters in a historically crowded and diverse Democratic field has been "electability": I have it, and if you want to beat Donald Trump, you'll vote for me.
Still, if you look closer, Biden's claim of electability appears to be built more on assumed reputation than on previous results.
Yes, he was elected to seven terms as a senator, but it was in the US's 48th most populous state where he hadn't faced a truly competitive opponent since he ousted Republican Sen. J. Caleb Boggs in 1972.
His Senate tenure was largely defined by being the liberal Democrat who tried to push the party to the right of Ronald Reagan on punitive criminal justice sanctions. Then he was the "de facto spokesman on the war against terrorism" - as The New Republic dubbed him in 2001 - and one of the architects of the Democratic "bipartisan" approach to giving George W. Bush the authority to wage war on Iraq.
Biden's had to disavow some of his signature legislative achievements, never a good sign for someone whose brand is built on a lifetime in government. And his presence on the trail has produced some truly bizarre moments. This was most recently exemplified when a 21-year-old female New Hampshire voter expressed skepticism of his electability claims, and he responded by playfully insulting her while mangling a John Wayne movie quote.
For these reasons, the pull of electability appears to be failing the former vice president.
Eight years as Obama's second-in-command counts for a lot at the outset of a primary campaign, but a long record of compromised centrism isn't going to win over the progressives. And it doesn't appear to have inspired the moderates who've thus far preferred former Mayor Pete Buttigieg - a 38-year-old whose appeal rests largely on the fact that he hasn't been a part of the maligned Washington, D.C. machinery.
Even moderate Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who surged to a third-place finish in New Hampshire, has seemed to register more than Biden after the first two contests. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg - another moderate - wasn't even on the ballot in New Hampshire, but he's spent over $300 million of his own fortune on ads in Super Tuesday states. A foundering Biden campaign simply can't compete with those resources.
So Biden is left with an uphill battle to reach the nomination and a less compelling case than ever.
It's time for Biden to leave the field
As I've previously written, a record of failure binds presidential candidates over the past five decades who have been both the most-familiar and least-fresh faces on the block: Hubert Humphrey. Walter Mondale. Bob Dole. Al Gore. John McCain. Hillary Clinton.
No one doubted their qualifications to be president. They just couldn't motivate the right coalitions to carry them to the White House. It might have been their "turn" to run for president, but the change candidate almost always beats the status quo candidate.
Biden's the "it's my turn" candidate in 2020. And while it's still very early in the cycle, Biden's disastrous start seems to keep with the trend.
The former Veep's ubiquity may have served him well in the long stretch of months filled with fundraising and debates, but the preseason's over now, and the outlook is grim. One Biden adviser told Politico after the New Hampshire results came in "This is horrendous. We're all scared."
If "normalcy" is Biden's end-game, he needs to bail from the race right now and back one of the moderates - perhaps Buttigieg or Klobuchar. These candidates can make a plausible case that they'll deliver on Biden's moderate promises while supplying a fresh face for voters.
Otherwise Bernie Sanders - a socialist who's never been an official member of the Democratic party while in Congress - could run away with the nomination. And that certainly wouldn't be a return to the normalcy Biden claims the voters want.
This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author(s).
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