6 key factors to consider when determining your risk of catching the coronavirus in any situation

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Aylin WoodwardMay 22, 2020, 19:03 IST
6 key factors to consider when determining your risk of catching the coronavirus in any situation

Staff members and clients wear protective masks in front of an Apple store, as Switzerland eases the lockdown measures during the spread of the coronavirus in Zurich, Switzerland May 13, 2020.Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters

Even simple activities like running to the grocery store or hanging out in a park can be mentally taxing these days, since they all require an assessment of our risk of getting the coronavirus. Even as some businesses reopen and states report downward trends in cases, those questions will likely hover over decisions for years to come.

According to infectious-disease experts, there are several key ways to determine how risky an activity or place is. Coronavirus transmission risk is somewhat lower outside than indoors, for example, though the most important factors to consider are how close you'll get to other people and for how long.

"This virus really likes people being indoors in an enclosed space for prolonged periods of close face-to-face contact," William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, previously told Business Insider.

Other aspects to consider are how well ventilated an indoor space is, and whether patrons and staff are wearing masks.

Here are six factors to think about when assessing how risky it is to go somewhere.

Read the original article on Business Insider
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One: Is the activity you're doing or the place you're visiting indoors or outdoors?

One: Is the activity you're doing or the place you're visiting indoors or outdoors?
A man wears a mask to protect himself from the coronavirus while running in front of the Bay Bridge along the Embarcadero in San Francisco, in April. Jeff Chiu / AP

The coronavirus typically spreads via droplets when people are in sustained proximity to someone sick. Those types of prolonged interactions can happen anywhere, but experts suggest the risk of infection is lower outside.

A preliminary report from Japanese scientists (which has yet to be peer-reviewed) suggested that the odds an infected person "transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment."

Another pre-print study examined 318 outbreaks in China that involved three or more cases, and found that all but one involved the virus jumping between people indoors. The case clusters studied, however, occurred while many people were under mandatory lockdown, which might have skewed the results.

The reasons your chances of infection might be lower outside, according to Schaffner, are that it's easier to maintain social distance outdoors and the virus has to navigate wind, heat, and humidity to jump between people.

The reasons your chances of infection might be lower outside, according to Schaffner, are that it's easier to maintain social distance outdoors and the virus has to navigate wind, heat, and humidity to jump between people.
People relax in marked circles for social distancing at Domino Park in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York, May 17, 2020. AP Photo/Kathy Willens

But that doesn't mean clumps of people should congregate in the park or on the beach. No matter where you are, people should stay at least 6 feet apart.

"What you do becomes the single most important thing, less so the environment," Schaffner said.

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Two: How well you can social distance when doing an activity or visiting a certain place?

Two: How well you can social distance when doing an activity or visiting a certain place?
Kids swimming at a public pool. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

The most important assessment Schaffner makes when deciding whether to enter a coffee shop, for example, is how well he can maintain his distance from other customers.

"I'm most concerned about how far apart I am from my fellow patrons," he said, adding, "it continues to be prudent to keep as distant from people as possible, no matter where you are."

Three: If the place you're visiting is indoors (like a restaurant or coffee shop), to what extent are patrons and staff wearing masks?

Three: If the place you're visiting is indoors (like a restaurant or coffee shop), to what extent are patrons and staff wearing masks?
Servers at The Original Ninfa's wear gloves and masks while fulfilling takeout orders in Houston, Texas, May 1, 2020. MARK FELIX/AFP /AFP via Getty Images

Schaffner suggests being very careful when in or near gatherings of people of any size, and "when in doubt, don't be stubborn and wear a mask."

Masks protect other people from any germs the wearer might be carrying, so are imperative in situations where it's difficult to maintain 6 feet of distance, he added.

"Make sure wait staff are wearing gloves and masks. If the wait staff aren't wearing masks, I'm getting my coffee across the street," Schaffner said.

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Four: How well ventilated is the place you're visiting?

Four: How well ventilated is the place you're visiting?
A masked cashier rings up purchases behind a plexiglass shield at Stop and Shop grocery store in Queens, New York, April 3, 2020. Morse Collection/Gado/Getty Images

Scientists still aren't certain to what degree a cloud of tiny coronavirus particles — known as aerosols — can linger in the air and infect the next person who walks through the space. But research suggests that more live virus is found in the air in enclosed rooms with little air flow.

A study in two hospitals in Wuhan, China, found that live coronavirus particles were most highly concentrated in the air within the 9-square-foot toilet areas in patients' rooms, which were not ventilated. The amount of virus in the air in ventilated wards, however, was very low.

Some elevators, for example, could be transmission hotspots "if they are crowded and people ride in them for a long time, like a minute or more several times a day," according to Linsey Marr, an aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech.

Some elevators, for example, could be transmission hotspots "if they are crowded and people ride in them for a long time, like a minute or more several times a day," according to Linsey Marr, an aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech.
Taped-off areas demarcate distances between people in a lift of an office building in Singapore, March 31, 2020. Roslan Rahman/AFP via Getty Images

"In such a tightly enclosed space without vigorous air movement for a short period of time, I'm afraid you might be exposed," Schaffner agreed.

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Five: How long will you be visiting an indoor space?

Five: How long will you be visiting an indoor space?
People wear face masks at a supermarket in Singapore on February 9, 2020. Ore Huiying/Getty Images

The worst coronavirus clusters around the US are all tied to spaces that force people into close quarters for extended periods of time. According to the New York Times, all but one of the 12 hardest-hit US locations have been prisons, jails, and meat-processing facilities. Nursing homes are also high on the list.

"The father away you are, and the shorter duration of contact between you and other people, means you get less efficient virus transmission," Schaffner said.

Offices and restaurants, too, can be risky for that reason.

Offices and restaurants, too, can be risky for that reason.
A Cracker Barrel restaurant in Georgia reopens after coronavirus stay-at-home orders lifted, May 6, 2020. Courtesy of Cracker Barrel

In a recent letter published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, scientists described how nine people sitting more than 3 feet apart at a restaurant in China got the coronavirus in January. The virus likely spread because of the restaurant's air-conditioner, they noted.

Similarly, an outbreak at a call center in Seoul, South Korea, provided a case study of office transmission: Of the center's 811 employees, 97 got sick. All but three of the infected workers sat on the same floor, and 79 were in the same section.

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Six: Will you be able to avoid areas where people congregate for long periods of time?

Six: Will you be able to avoid areas where people congregate for long periods of time?
Beachgoers flock to California's Newport Beach amid the coronavirus pandemic, April 27, 2020. Michael Heiman/Getty Images

People who play golf, go hiking, or visit the beach shouldn't linger in locker rooms, at trailheads, or in parking lots, Schaffner said. That's where people are more likely to stand around and have conversations without masks.

He suggests people should visit the beach for exercise, rather than tanning and relaxation.

"If you let people on a beach to exercise, they'll stay apart. If you let them bring beach umbrellas, they congregate and can't keep their distance," he said.

"It's people coming together in groups that matters," Schaffner said.

"It's people coming together in groups that matters," Schaffner said.
Students at the University of Colorado Boulder during a graduation party amid the pandemic, May 7, 2020. MediaNews Group/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images

A recent study found that talking loudly produces enough droplets to transmit the coronavirus, and that those droplets can linger in the air for at least eight minutes.

"Any gathering, from the point of view of the virus, is ideal. People get together, exchange stories, and thank you very much, the virus is going to go from me to you," Schaffner said.

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That's why fleeting encounters on a park trail are less risky.

That's why fleeting encounters on a park trail are less risky.
A woman wearing a protective visor bikes through Paris on May 13, 2020. Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto/Getty Images

"I would not worry about walking by someone," Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University, told Slate. "Even in a healthcare setting, contact is defined by being near someone for a certain amount of time. I would not worry about these fleeting encounters."

"The general principle should be: Outside is better than inside; open is better than closed; fewer is better than more people; and stay away from sick people," Dr. Erich Anderer, a neurosurgeon and founding member of the North Brooklyn Runners group, told Insider.

"The general principle should be: Outside is better than inside; open is better than closed; fewer is better than more people; and stay away from sick people," Dr. Erich Anderer, a neurosurgeon and founding member of the North Brooklyn Runners group, told Insider.
A boy runs across a square in Stockholm, Sweden, on May 8, 2020. ONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images
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