A 2015 report reveals that New York has 15% of the ventilators it might need in a pandemic, and it shows why we need social distancing

Lydia Ramsey

Mar 11, 2020, 19:50 IST

A 2015 report reveals that New York has 15% of the ventilators it might need in a pandemic, and it shows why we need social distancing

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Social distancing measures could help keep the novel coronavirus from overwhelming the US healthcare system.

The novel coronavirus outbreak could stretch the healthcare system to its limits.
According to a report from New York state in 2015, the state would only have about 15% of the ventilators needed to care for patients in a severe pandemic, similar to the 1918 flu outbreak.
The estimates show why protective social distancing measures like quarantining people who come in contact with infected individuals and closing schools and workplaces could be key to keeping the outbreak from overwhelming the US healthcare system.
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The novel coronavirus outbreak could push the US healthcare system to its limits.

In particular, intensive care units, which treat the sickest patients, could face shortages of key equipment like ventilators. They could also face staffing shortages and run out of space, should the outbreak be as widespread as some estimates suggest it could get.

Data on the US healthcare system's limited resources highlights the importance of protective measures that could mitigate some of the spread of the COVID-19 virus, in turn keeping treatment for the virus within the capacity of the US healthcare system.

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Facing issues of capacity

For instance, ventilator guidelines for New York state released in 2015 note that there are 7,241 ventilators available, with an additional 1,750 stockpiled. Ventilators are a crucial tool to care for people sickened by the flu or the novel coronavirus, both of which make it hard for patients to breath in severe cases.

Under an extreme influenza pandemic scenario outlined in the document, hospitals in the state would only have about 15% of the ventilators they need to care for patients, assuming ventilators are still being used for other patients not related to the outbreak.

The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

The estimates include:

4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
1.9 million patients requiring care in an intensive care unit
96 million cases overall in the US
480,000 deaths

There are roughly 95,000 intensive care unit beds in the US. The slide does not give a particular time frame.

Already in Italy, in parts of the country hardest hit by the coronavirus, clinicians are facing a shortage of medical supplies and hospital beds. Doctors are being forced to make tough decisions about who to treat.

In a March letter, professionals coordinating the response in northern Italy wrote that hospitals in the area are seeing a high number of ICU admissions, because of respiratory failure that requires ventilation. About 10% of all patients who've tested positive for the virus have been admitted to ICUs, they wrote.

Why preventive measures could help

The looming threat of shortages of space, materials, and people to care for patients has led to public health officials in other countries taking drastic steps to curb the spread of the virus, placing cities and even whole countries on lockdown.

A review conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong and published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Disease journal evaluated the effectiveness of six measures to reduce the transmission of influenza: isolating people who are ill, tracing contact to find out others who might have come in contact with a sick individual, quarantining people who may have been exposed, closing schools, closing work, and avoiding crowds.

Ideally, using a mix of the social distancing techniques, countries like the US could keep the spread of the COVID-19 virus within the limits of health systems, as demonstrated with this chart. That's especially important in the absence of treatments and a preventive vaccine for the virus.

Pleas to help "flatten the curve" have gone viral as the US looks for measures to curb the spread of the virus.

It's led to school closures, cancellations of major events, and companies mandating employees work from home.

coronavirus covid 19 spread healthcare system protective measures chart

Samantha Lee/Business Insider

Already, the social-distancing measures seem to be leading to a fewer infections in countries that had early spread of the disease. China has seen a dramatic reduction of infections and deaths after taking drastic actions like locking down cities amid the outbreak.

South Korea, which has tested more than 140,000 people for the virus, has started to see a slowdown in cases amid decisions to cancel school and large social gatherings.

More than 121,000 people worldwide have been infected with the novel coronavirus and more than 4,300 deaths have been reported. The US accounts for more than 1,000 of those cases and 31 of the deaths.