Only 11 schools still have a legit shot to snag a No. 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA tournament
11. West Virginia Mountaineers
Record (AP rank): 18-5 (14)
Signature wins: vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, vs. No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Worst losses: at St. John's Red Storm, at Oklahoma Sooners
Key games remaining: vs. No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks, at No. 1 Baylor Bears, vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears
The outlook: West Virginia earned a No. 2 seed in the selection committee's latest reveal of its top 16 teams, but the Mountaineers subsequently lost to the unranked Oklahoma Sooners and slipped a spot in the AP Poll. With many strong teams waiting in the wings to snag one of the top seeds, West Virginia's five losses could be disqualifying. Still, with an upcoming matchup against the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks and two against the No. 1 Baylor Bears, Bob Huggins' team has a chance to knock off some heavyweights and muscle its way back into the conversation for a No. 1 seed in the next few weeks.
10. Florida State Seminoles
Record (AP rank): 20-4 (8)
Signature wins: at No. 6 Florida Gators, at No. 7 Louisville
Worst losses: at Pittsburgh Panthers, at Indiana Sooners
Key games remaining: vs. No. 5 Louisville Cardinals
The outlook: Like the West Virginia Mountaineers, a few bad losses may keep the Florida State Seminoles out of contention for one of the four No. 1 seeds in this year's NCAA tournament. Most notably, the Mountaineers dropped their first game of the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Panthers and later lost a 16-point decision at unranked Indiana. But also like the Mountaineers, the Seminoles have a chance to knock off an ACC heavyweight and increase their standing among the nation's top teams down the stretch. They'll travel to the KFC Yum! Center to take on No. 5 Louisville later this month. If Florida State can take down the Cardinals, it may make a case for itself as the first team in its conference to come off the board.
9. Maryland Terrapins
Record (AP rank): 19-4 (9)
Signature wins: at No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes, at No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini
Worst losses: at Iowa Hawkeyes, at Wisconsin Badgers
Key games remaining: at Michigan State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Michigan
The outlook: Sure, Maryland has one more loss than the Seminoles. And, yes, the Terrapins are a spot behind Florida State in this week's AP Poll. But Maryland has one thing going for it that the Seminoles don't: a historically strong Big 10 conference. The ACC has been a disaster this season, whereas the Big 10 has consistently had significant representation in the rankings. All four of the Terrapins' losses have come on the road, and all but one came at the hands of teams now ranked. Further, Maryland redeemed itself by stomping Iowa at home after losing to the Hawkeyes on their home court. And while the Terps don't have any currently-ranked teams remaining on their schedule, home and away matchups against Michigan State before hosting Michigan in their regular-season finale could help bolster their case as king of the conference.
8. Dayton Flyers
Record (AP rank): 21-2 (6)
Signature wins: vs. Georgia Bulldogs, vs. Virginia Tech Hokies, vs. VCU Rams
Worst losses: vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks, vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Key games remaining: at VCU Rams, at Rhode Island Rams
The outlook: Based on record alone, the Dayton Flyers should find themselves in the conversation for a top seed come March Madness. But strength-of-schedule matters and the Flyers' doesn't even crack the top 100 in the country. Still, Dayton's only two losses on the season come against teams currently ranked in the top 20 of the AP Poll. And even though they don't have wins against ranked opponents, the Flyers did beat one top-50 KenPom team in the VCU Rams. Dayton has a chance to notch a few more similar wins as it faces VCU on the road and Rhode Island both home and away in the final stretch of the regular season, but it likely won't be enough. With two non-Power 5 conference contenders currently slated for No. 1 seeds, it seems far-fetched to expect the selection committee to add a third into the mix — especially one without a win against a ranked opponent.
7. Seton Hall Pirates
Record (AP rank): 18-5 (10)
Signature wins: vs. No. 7 Maryland Terrapins, at No. 5 Butler Bulldogs, at No. 10 Villanova Wildcats
Worst losses: at Iowa State Cyclones, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, vs. Xavier Musketeers
Key games remaining: at No. 18 Marquette Golden Eagles, vs. No. 15 Villanova Wildcats, at No. 23 Creighton Bluejays
The outlook: Seton Hall has its best team in years, and it's well-positioned to snag a top seed for the NCAA tournament — with a bit of help. Though the Pirates have losses against three different unranked teams, they also have three top-10 wins and the highest AP Top 25 Poll ranking of all Big East teams. Should any of the teams that currently appear to have a stronghold on a No. 1 seed — like Gonzaga or San Diego State — falter down the stretch, there's a solid argument to be made that Seton Hall deserves the nod over the ACC's top contenders. Not only has the Big East been a stronger conference, on the whole, this season, but the Pirates' non-conference strength of schedule was significantly tougher than either Louisville's or Duke's.
6. Duke Blue Devils
Record (AP rank): 21-3 (7)
Signature wins: vs. No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks, at No. 11 Michigan State
Worst losses: vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, at Clemson Tigers
Key games remaining: vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The outlook: Duke is right up there with Louisville contending for a top seed, and if any of the teams currently slated for a No. 1 seed falters down the stretch, Mike Krzyzewski's squad could get the nod to fill the void. But while the Blue Devils' highs were as high as anyone's this season — including wins against then-No. 3 Kansas at Madison Square Garden and at No. 11 Michigan State — their lows were especially low. Losses against Stephen F. Austin and Clemson — the 107th and 96th team in the KenPom rankings, respectively — don't bode well for Duke's chances of snagging a No. 1 seed, even if it did have a stronger schedule and the same amount of losses as Louisville. The Blue Devils bolstered their case with a win against the Florida State Seminoles Monday night, and if they finish out the season without a slip-up, they may have a shot at a top seed.
5. Louisville Cardinals
Record (AP rank): 21-3 (5)
Signature wins: vs. No. 4 Michigan Wolverines, at No. 3 Duke Blue Devils
Worst losses: at Iowa State Cyclones, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, vs. Xavier Musketeers
Key games remaining: at No. 18 Marquette Golden Eagles, vs. No. 15 Villanova Wildcats, at No. 23 Creighton Bluejays
The outlook: There's a case to be made for either Duke or Lousiville as the ACC's top-seeded team, but the Cardinals get the edge for a few reasons. They won their head-to-head matchup at Cameron Indoor earlier in the season. Louisville's three losses also came to Texas Tech, then-No. 18 Florida State, and then-No. 19 Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Those losses aged particularly well, as all three are currently ranked, with both the Seminoles and the Wildcats in the top 15. So even though the Cardinals' nonconference slate was far less challenging than Duke's, their losses were also far less severe. If any of the four teams ahead of Louisville suffer a considerable loss in the final weeks of the season — or, perhaps, if Chris Mack's squad puts on a clinic in the ACC tournament — expect the Cardinals to be first off the list to take a No. 1 seed.
4. San Diego State Aztecs
Record (AP rank): 24-0 (4)
Signature wins: vs. Creighton Bluejays, at Utah State Aggies
Worst losses: N/A
Key games remaining: at Boise State Broncos, at Nevada Wolf Pack
The outlook: The only undefeated team in Division I basketball deserves top seeding in the NCAA tournament, which means the No. 1 slot is San Diego State's to lose. If the Aztecs win out, there's little doubt the selection committee will rule in their favor, but a single loss will undoubtedly push them out of the upper echelons of college basketball. The Mountain West conference is not particularly strong, and, as a result, San Diego State's strength of schedule is ranked 117th in the country, according to KenPom. Still, Gonzaga — a team that is consistently highly-regarded among college basketball experts despite its relatively weak conference — has a lower overall and nonconference strength of schedule than the Aztecs. That perspective may be worth considering if and when chatter builds delegitimizing San Diego's accomplishments on the season.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
Record (AP rank): 20-3 (3)
Signature wins: vs. Dayton Flyers, vs. No. 20 Colorado Buffaloes, vs. No. 16 West Virginia Mountaineers
Worst losses: vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils, at No. 18 Villanova Wildcats
Key games remaining: at No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers, at No. 1 Baylor Bears
The outlook: Kansas is the only Blue Blood program currently slated to earn a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA tournament, but it is certainly not without merit. According to KenPom, the Jayhawks are the top team in the country with the second-ranked strength of schedule. Their only losses come against teams that were not only ranked at the time of the contest but also are currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll. The only major deficit on Kansas' resume is a signature road win, but Bill Self's squad will have three chances to get one under its belt before the regular season comes to an end. Unless things go drastically wrong to close out the year, expect the Jayhawks to snag a top seed heading into March.
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record (AP rank): 25-1 (2)
Signature wins: vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks, at No. 15 Arizona Wildcats
Worst losses: vs. Michigan Wolverines
Key games remaining: at BYU Cougars, at Saint Mary's Gaels
The outlook: The Gonzaga Bulldogs own the country's 138th-ranked strength-of-schedule and the 240th non-conference strength-of-schedule in Division I. However, if the committee has learned the same lesson as the general college basketball-viewing public over the last few years, it knows better than to underestimate Mark Few and his perennial title contenders. Once again, Gonzaga is cruising through the regular season. The Bulldogs have suffered just a single loss on the year, and it came at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines in the throes of their unbelievable run at the Battle 4 Atlantis. If Gonzaga manages to finish the season with just the single loss, they're a lock for a No. 1 seed.
1. Baylor Bears
Record (AP rank): 22-1 (1)
Signature wins: vs No. 12 Arizona Wildcats, at No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks Arizona Wildcats
Worst losses: vs No. 12 Arizona Wildcats, at No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Key games remaining: vs No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks, at No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers
The outlook: At the start of the season, the Baylor Bears were ranked but hardly garnered the hype of a soon-to-be No. 1 team. Slowly but surely, they worked their way up the rankings and, midway through conference play, asserted themselves as the top team in the nation. Baylor only has one loss on the season — which came against the Washington Huskies in early November — and since then the Bears have taken down the likes of No. 12 Arizona, No. 3 Kansas, No. 18 Butler, and No. 22 Texas Tech. If they hold up in upcoming games against Kansas and West Virginia, Baylor is all but guaranteed to hang onto a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Now check out the biggest winners and losers in the NCAA this week:
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