The 2020 stock market looks just like 2009 — and the S&P 500 is set for a 14% gain if history repeats itself, an analyst says

• The S&P 500's recent rally from its March 23 low is closely tracking the bottom and subsequent rally that the index experienced in 2009 amid the financial crisis, an analysis by DataTrek found.
• If the S&P 500 continues to closely track its 2009 movements, investors should expect it to cruise 14% from current levels to all-time highs by the end of the year, DataTrek said.
• In 2009, the market saw a 17% rally from late July through the end of the year — and "if history repeats itself that would put the S&P at 3,588 on December 31," DataTrek said.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The S&P 500's trading activity since its March 23 low is closely tracking the index's price movements back in 2009 when it bottomed during the financial crisis, a note from DataTrek published on Monday said.

As of Monday — 58 days since the March 23 bottom — the S&P 500 was trading 37.1% higher. In 2009, 58 days after its March low, the index was trading 39.4% higher.

As the S&P 500 has traded higher, its attempts to get ahead of the 2009 rally have failed. On April 14, "the 2020 rally got ahead of 2009 by 11 full points (+27.2% from the lows vs +16.4% in 2009)," DataTrek said, but "then gave up all those gains in the next 5 days."

Read more: Heath Jones is a US Army neuroscientist whose side hustle is scooping up real estate for passive income. Here's how he leverages a simple strategy for extra cash.

Additionally, the S&P 500 started last week 13 points ahead of the 2009 rally, but a 6% sell-off last Thursday again helped close that gap between the 2020 and 2009 rallies.

The takeaway from DataTrek is this: "The 2020 rally off the March lows has few historical comparables and 2009 is certainly the best fit both in terms of timing and magnitude."

While the index has exhibited similar trading tendencies as in its historical performance in 2009, DataTrek noted the internal differences between the S&P 500 then and the index now.

First, valuations are far apart. On Day 58 of the S&P 500's 2009 rally, the index traded at 10.4x trailing earnings, DataTrek said. Now the index trades at 19.6x trailing earnings.

Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 13 cheap stocks that have unexpectedly strong finances, making them great bets for the next phase of the rally

Second, sector allocations in the index are different today than they were 11 years ago. In June 2009, the technology sector had a weight of 18.4%. Today, when you include Google and Facebook, the index's weight in technology stocks is 32%, the note said.

The energy-sector allocation is also different, DataTrek said. Back then, it was 12.4%. Today, it sits near 3%.

"Don't overthink it — 2020 is just like 2009," DataTrek concluded. The firm said that if the comparisons between 2009 and 2020 hold, "then the S&P 500 is set for a breather" in the short term.

From the 2009 rally's 58th day, the index didn't go anywhere for 34 trading days — but then the market continued its uptrend with a 17% rally from late July through the end of the year.

"If history repeats itself that would put the S&P at 3,588 on December 31, for an 11.1% price gain on the year," DataTrek said. A rally to those levels would represent record highs for the index and a 14% gain from current levels.

Read more: Schwab's global investing chief says the market's best-performing stocks are due for a surprising rotation for the first time in 12 years — and shares 3 ways to get ahead of the shift