The computer models that pick NFL games have made their picks for Week 15

drew breesRob Carr/Getty

  • Elo and Cortana have made their picks for Week 15.
  • Cortana leads the overall race, correctly picking 66% of the games this season.

Week 15 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. Each gives a likelihood that a team will win, however, which in theory could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 66% of the games, including a 9-7 record in Week 14. Elo has nailed 60% overall.

Here are the picks for Week 15, with each team's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.


View As: One Page Slides

"Thursday Night Football"

"Thursday Night Football"
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) — CHIEFS (Elo 66%, Cortana 60%)


  • Houston Texans (-6.5) at New York Jets — TEXANS (Elo 64%, Cortana 73%)
  • Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-2.5) — BRONCOS (Elo 69%, Cortana 57%)

Sunday-afternoon games — early window

Sunday-afternoon games — early window
  • Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7) — VIKINGS (Elo 72%, Cortana 69%)
  • Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) — BENGALS (Elo 66%, Cortana 57%)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) —RAVENS (Elo 76%, Cortana 77%)
  • Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3) — COWBOYS (Elo 53%); COLTS (Cortana 60%)
  • Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2) — LIONS (Elo 51%); BILLS (Cortana 53%)
  • Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-6) — BEARS (Elo 74%, Cortana 66%)
  • Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2) — TITANS (Elo 51%, Cortana 53%)
  • Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) — JAGUARS (Elo 60%, Cortana 73%)
  • Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5) — FALCONS (Elo 73%, Cortana 70%)

Sunday-afternoon games — late window

Sunday-afternoon games — late window
  • Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers — SEAHAWKS (Elo 71%, Cortana 75%)
  • New England Patriots (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers — STEELERS (Elo 51%); PATRIOTS (Cortana 55%)

"Sunday Night Football"

"Sunday Night Football"
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) — RAMS (Elo 70%, Cortana 72%)

"Monday Night Football"

"Monday Night Football"
  • New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers — SAINTS (Elo 69%, Cortana 78%)

Now check out this week's power rankings.

Now check out this week's power rankings.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 15
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