The most complicated situation in the world just got even trickier

"I would be concerned that Russia could take a tit for tat approach and down a Turkish fighter jet at some at point in the future, but an incident in 2012 when Syria shot down a Turkish fighter jet shows that perhaps cooler heads will prevail, as that incident did not further escalate," Zilberman told Business Insider.

Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, noted that the "huge egos" of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin "doesn't help" matters. But he argued Russia would benefit more from a measured response.

"Putin's initial reaction - calling the incident 'a stab in the back by the terrorists' accomplices' - is about as bellicose as could be imagined. But Putin is no stranger to harsh rhetoric, and he has broader interests to play for," Bremmer said.

Not least of those interests is to keep exporting gas to Turkey, which remains Russia's second-largest buyer. Russia also accounted for approximately 12% of all tourists to Turkey last year.

"There's a very significant economic relationship between the two sides - tourism, trade, and most importantly energy - that neither Putin nor Erdogan want to interfere with," Bremmer said.

Moreover, Putin has important geopolitical considerations to keep in mind.

"Putin doesn't want to create more antagonism with NATO just as he's making progress with the Europeans - France in particular - in turning back the US-led Western 'isolation' of the Russians," Bremmer added.

France, the US, and Russia were in talks to further coordinate their activities on the ground in Syria to form a joint anti-ISIS coalition. But Tuesday's events might complicate the US' and France's efforts to get Russia to cooperate further in the anti-ISIS fight.

As Schanzer said, "The fact that it was a Russian plane obviously complicates recent efforts to pull Moscow into the global anti-ISIS coalition."

Tit-for-tat

Notably, there are some subtle ways Russia could get back at the Turks - the Russian Defense Ministry has already announced that it will suspend military contact with Turkey. But it is unlikely Russia would risk a significant military escalation with NATO by doing anything more aggressive.

"Putin's immediate response has been mordant and tough, accusing Turkey of stabbing Russia in the back, of in effect protecting ISIS, and running to its NATO powers as if it has been one of its own aircraft that had been shot down," Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security affairs and professor of global affairs at New York University, wrote on Tuesday.

"We can expect some kind of retaliation on the political-economic front (maybe stopping Turkish airliners coming to Russian airports?) and maybe also some unloading of additional serious ordinance on Turkish-backed elements in Syria," Galeotti wrote on his blog, In Moscow's Shadows.

"However," he added, "I suspect neither Moscow nor, at the very least, the other European NATO powers will want to let this go too far."

Zilberman largely agreed.

"Beyond a tit for tat approach, Putin could use Turkey's dependency on Russian gas to his advantage but there are economic ramifications for Russia in that sort of response as well," Zilberman said. "Additionally, Russia could go all in on arming the Kurds as well as a response."

Still, Schanzer noted, it is still too soon to say with certainty how Russia - long a fairly unpredictable actor - will respond in the coming days and weeks.

"We must now await Russia's reaction," Schanzer said. "If Russia considers this a hostile act rather than an error, we could see a crisis that invokes the charter of NATO, given Turkey's status in the multilateral organization."