Financial markets continue to expect that further easing will be necessary to protect growth, and after today's move are still pricing in two or three additional 25bps rate cuts by the end of 2020. We believe this is excessive, given the relative resilience of the US economy to-date and recent evidence that suggests inflation may be bottoming out. -Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS
Markets still expect another cut in the fall, but the actual timing will depend on the data between now and then. On the one hand, strong jobs or manufacturing numbers could lead expectations to reset to a much higher rate path. On the other hand, further easing by the European Central Bank or renewed trade tensions with China could lead markets to price in further cuts. -Christopher Smart, chief global strategist and head of the Barings Investment Institute
Powell was clear that the Fed does not see today's cut as the beginning of a cutting cycle. If the Fed returns to data dependence, based on our forecast, they will not cut again. -Seth Carpenter, chief economist at UBS
I think for now that the base case is no cut in September but a balance of risks and an inflation outlook that argue for easing thereafter. Paradoxically, today's press conference and the associated financial market response make additional easing likely later in the year. -Eric Winograd, senior US economist at AllianceBernstein