Jeff Gundlach says the Fed is digging a hole with its rate hikes only to fill it back in: 'Makes you wonder why they bother'

• Jeff Gundlach has questioned the Federal Reserve's plans for further interest-rate increases.
• Import and export prices show Fed rate hikes have already brought down inflation, according to the billionaire investor.

The Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates further is questionable because it'll likely end up reversing those hikes sooner rather than later, Jeff Gundlach has warned.

The DoubleLine Capital CEO said Wednesday that he's expecting Fed policymakers to lift borrowing costs by 50 basis points when they meet next week, increasing the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.5%.

Bond yields reflect market expectations that the central bank will boost rates to 5% before eventually cutting them back to that 4.25% level by the end of 2023, Gundlach said.

"The prediction from the shape of the yield curve of the bond market is that the fed funds rate should be about the same one year from next week as it will be next week," he told the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit Wednesday. "It's kind of strange that the Fed is going to dig a hole and then fill it back in."

"It makes you wonder why they bother with the whole exercise," Gundlach added.

The Fed has raised interest rates by an outsized 75 basis points at each of the last four meetings this year in a bid to tame inflation, which is currently running close to four-decade highs.

Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that the monetary authority is preparing to shift to a more gradual tightening strategy, hiking at a slower pace but for a longer period of time.

That might not be necessary with some indicators suggesting that inflation is already starting to fall, Gundlach said.

While October's Consumer Price Index print showed inflation rising at 7.7%, Gundlach noted that his favored gauge of import and export price inflation had started to fall rapidly in recent months.

"If we look at my favorite indicators, which are import and export prices, they were up in the double digits several months ago and now import prices are below 5% and export prices are about 6%," he said. "The reason I like those is that they're not adjusted – they're actually real prices, unlike the CPI which is all kinds of hedonics and replacements and all that stuff."

Analysis of the housing market also suggests that the Fed's campaign against inflation is working, according to Gundlach.

Market activity has slowed sharply this year as the Fed's tightening drives up mortgage rates – with many economists now forecasting home prices to drop around 20% next year.

"The housing market is just incredible how radically it's reversed over the past year," Gundlach said.

"Clearly inflation has been coming down, which is something the Fed should be looking at," he added.

Read more: Zelman & Associates called the housing market's downturn long before it started. Its homebuilding expert told us why the current slump could last for years.