Patrons leave as others wait for a table at Tiki Bar on Manhattan's Upper West Side, Monday, May 17, 2021, in New York.Kathy Willens/AP Photo
- Several signs suggest the US recovery is accelerating again as the Delta wave fades, UBS economists said.
- Americans' spending is rebounding, factories are solving backlogs, and businesses are hiring faster.
Temperatures are dropping across the US, but in one crucial way, it's feeling a lot more like summer.
The US economy is booming once more after the Delta wave slowed the recovery through August and September. The comeback through October is "far outpacing" the progress seen the month before, UBS economists said in a Monday note.
The degree of the rebound is also extraordinary. Such month-over-month improvements have only happened about 20% of the time historically, the team led by Ajit Agrawal said.
The pickup comes from gains across the board. The Delta wave continued to fade, and daily case counts are now the lowest they've been since late July. The plunge in virus cases led to Americans spending more, with UBS forecasting that sales "picked up substantially" in October. Filings for unemployment benefits have steadily declined through the month. And while the country remains mired in a supply-chain mess, companies are working around the clock to solve massive backlogs.
The signs all point to a stronger recovery heading into the end of the year. Here are the three trends revealing just how much the recovery picked up in October, according to UBS.