MAP: See when the coronavirus outbreak will peak in every state

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MAP: See when the coronavirus outbreak will peak in every state
hospital and death peak map 2x1
  • The coronavirus has already peaked in some US states, such as New York.
  • The outbreak is still building in other states, meaning they haven't seen the worst of the pandemic, according to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
  • Iowa and Wyoming's outbreaks are projected to peak on May 5, according to the projections.
  • Read live updates about the coronavirus here

Some states are already facing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic while others are waiting for a surge in the coming weeks, according to projections from researchers.

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Depending on which model you're looking at, the national coronavirus peak in the US could already have passed or may be coming in the near future. This date can also change depending on if you want to know when hospitals are expected to be the most overwhelmed or when deaths will mount.

Models also account for things like how well people adhere to social distancing guidelines and stay at home orders in different ways, which creates wide ranges in timing.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), for example, assumes high levels of social distancing in its model and says that the country's peak already happened last weekend. Penn Medicine's CHIME Model, on the other hand, which incorporates lower compliance, predicts the apex could come as late as June.

Read more: American hospitals have lost 27 medical workers to the coronavirus. Here are some of their stories.

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But there are several peaks that are set to happen in the US and they vary from state-to-state.

Places like Washington, New York, and New Jersey - which have already been hit hard by the coronavirus - have already experienced their peaks, according to the IHME. States that haven't seen as many cases yet, like Iowa and Wyoming, may see surges happen as late as early May, more than a month later than the earliest spots to be hit.

The risk of a 'second wave' of COVID-19 in the US

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in early April that coastal cities like New York are likely to experience their peaks earlier than the rest of the country, around mid-April and that other parts of the US will likely peak in the weeks following.

A big risk that could follow these different sets of peaks, the organization said in a report, is "a second wave of infections emanating from the central region of the country after the coasts have peaked in mid-April."

Read more: Scientists are scrambling to determine the course of the coronavirus pandemic. Here are their best estimates of when the outbreak might turn a corner.

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In other words, coastal cities may experience another wave of coronavirus infections even after their first one. The IHME model only looks at the initial outbreak.

States hitting their peaks early

The states that have already experienced their peaks, either in terms of the highest number of deaths in a day or the day that hospital resources will be stretched the most, include places like Michigan, Washington, and Louisiana, which have already seen relatively early and high numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases within their borders.

Colorado was the first state to see its hospital resources stretched thinnest in the country due to the coronavirus, on March 28, while Vermont and Montana were some of the earliest states to experience their peaks for coronavirus-related deaths in the country, according to data from the IHME, on March 23 and March 30 respectively.

Business Insider determined the peak of deaths by looking at which day would have the highest average projected number of deaths in the IHME model. In the case that several days had the same number of deaths, the middle day was chosen.

Both Vermont and Montana established stay-at-home just a few days after states like New York and New Jersey, which have remained the two biggest epicenters of the coronavirus pandemic in the country.

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Read more: Zooming with coronavirus patients: Doctors at Stanford are using iPads to adapt telehealth to the coronavirus pandemic

Around 50% of states are hitting their peaks for hospital resources between mid-April and May 1

Around half of states are expected to face the most strenuous time for hospital resources, which includes personal protective equipment and ventilators, between April 16 and May 1.

Read more: A NYC hospital has figured out how to turn sleep apnea machines it got from Elon Musk into ventilators for coronavirus patients

Though 19 states are expected to have already faced their most difficult day in terms of hospital resources before mid-April, others like Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Alabama may face this period almost a month later than some of their counterparts.

A handful of states are expected to hit their peaks after May 2

There are 12 states that have yet to enact stay-at-home orders as of April 14. Of the 12 that have yet to do so, three (Nebraska, Iowa, and Wyoming) are expected to hit both their peaks in deaths related to the coronavirus and in hospital resources on or after May 2.

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Most states that fall into this category have seen relatively fewer cases compared to other parts of the country. However, others - like Florida and Georgia - have some of the most confirmed coronavirus cases in the country, ranked 8th and 11th place respectively with over 22,500 and 15,000 cases as of April 16.

Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email covidtips@businessinsider.com and tell us your story.

Get the latest coronavirus business & economic impact analysis from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is affecting industries.

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