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Navy Hospital Ship USNS Comfort travels up the Hudson River as it heads to Pier 90 as the coronavirus pandemic continues to overwhelm medical infrastructure on March 30, 2020 seen from Weehawken, New Jersey.
- Morgan Stanley tripled its projected coronavirus caseload to 570,000, from 200,000 just two weeks ago. The outbreak won't slow until the end of the April, Morgan Stanley researchers warn.
- The US now has the highest number of cases and the fastest growing coronavirus outbreak of any country tracked by Morgan Stanley.
- In the US, deaths from coronavirus are increasing exponentially, but testing capacity and social distancing measures lag behind other countries.
- Unless the US ramps up quarantines, the middle of the country could become the next hotbed and potentially reinfect coastal cities, according to Morgan Stanley.
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Morgan Stanley just tripled its coronavirus projection to 570,000 cases, and warned that the US is in for a "broad and accelerating outbreak" that won't slow until at least late April.
Just two weeks ago, researchers at the bank said they expected the US would see about 200,000 coronavirus cases, and that social distancing measures would help curb the outbreak.
Several new trends caused the firm to reassess, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Matthew Harrison wrote in a note to clients on Monday. They include the emergence of new and worsening "hot spots," relatively lax quarantine initiatives, and exponentially increasing mortality and infection rates.
The US now has the largest number of cases and the highest growth rate among all countries tracked by the bank. On top of that, mortality is increasing at an exponential rate despite social distancing.
That could be due to the fact that current quarantine measures are not as strict as in other countries. Italy, for instance, is in the middle of a nationwide lockdown except for work and emergencies, while China imposed a stringent lockdown at the end of January.
Monday's report noted that President Donald Trump's administration extended federal social distancing guidelines to April 30, and said that may not be enough.
One of the biggest risks posed by failing to implement stricter quarantines is not only overwhelming the healthcare system but also setting the stage for a "second wave" of infections in the middle of the country, after infections in coastal cities peak in mid-April, according to the firm.
Indeed, there are 40 deaths in Cook County, Illinois, 34 deaths in Oakland County, Michigan, and 28 deaths in Jefferson County, Louisiana, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins as of Monday morning. Cases in Illinois, Michigan, Louisiana, Florida and New York are growing at rates faster than all other countries, including Italy, according to Morgan Stanley.
"We would highlight that the biggest risk to this forecast is that while we have reasonable confidence the East and West coasts will reach peak cases in the next 2-3 weeks, the interior of the country is now exhibiting signs of new outbreaks," the Morgan Stanley authors wrote.
"With these outbreaks delayed from the coasts by 2 weeks or more, there is risk that these new outbreaks will delay the US peak or cause recontamination of the coastal cities," they said.
Not helping matters are still-hamstrung testing efforts by US hospitals. People with symptoms of the novel novel coronavirus are being told to go home unless they become severely ill, since resources, including tests and healthcare workers themselves, are already stretched thin.
As of last week, the American rate of testing per capita was still more than six times lower than South Korea's, despite the fact that more and more people are testing positive, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation and Morgan Stanley. On top of that, US cases are growing faster than tests, according to Morgan Stanley's research.
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