Richer nations are unfairly eating away at the carbon budget, not leaving room for developing countries like India: study

Climate mitigation is a race to the start line. It doesn't matter who you are, everyone has to drag their tired feet on the same sun-scorched track. However, considering that this cruel indiscrimination plays out quite unfairly, it is natural to expect the "fitter" players to lend a helping hand. Ironically and tragically enough, this is almost the opposite of what is observed currently.

The 2015 Paris Agreement was a monumental step in the right direction, with nations pledging to reduce their carbon emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, as a recent issue brief by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) reveals, developed countries are significantly lagging behind in fulfilling their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), thereby jeopardising the global climate effort.

Developed countries are projected to collectively emit approximately 3.7 gigatonnes of extra carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2030, in stark contrast to the reduction goals expressed in their NDCs. This means that we could be a devastating 38% over our agreed climate budget. Furthermore, some of the most developed nations in the world — the United States, European Union and Russia — will be collectively responsible for a staggering 83% of this overshoot.

According to the report, only two developed countries, Norway and Belarus, are on track to achieve their NDCs for this decade. This is a grim statistic that not only underscores the lacklustre performance of the majority of rich and developed nations, but also inadvertently places an increasing toll on developing countries such as India.

Developing countries require sufficient carbon space to address their development challenges, and the lack of commitment from wealthier nations restricts their ability to do so.

So far, developed countries' NDCs for 2030 collectively represent a mere 36% reduction in emissions from their 2019 levels. While this is certainly a step in the right direction, it still falls short of the global average of 43% required to keep the 1.5°C target at bay, which many experts consider just a baseline to prevent the Earth from tipping dangerously over.

Further, a huge part of the current emission reductions observed by these developing nations since 1990 can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the erstwhile massive emissions by former Soviet countries. The study has also shown that instead of making space for developing nations in a time of crisis, these nations are projected to eat away at half of the remaining carbon budget by 2050, leaving absolutely no breathing room for the rest of the world.

To rectify this dire situation, the CEEW report recommends that developed countries enhance their NDCs and significantly scale up their climate action to bridge the projected 3.7 gigatonnes implementation gap by 2025.

The consequences of their inaction not only threaten the well-being of our planet, but also hinder the development aspirations of less affluent nations. Therefore, it is high time for developed nations to step up, set ambitious targets, and lead by example in the global effort to combat climate change.