The carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C might be exhausted in just six years, shocking study finds

Just like a balloon, there's only so much we can pump into the atmosphere before things begin to pop. To that end, scientists established the 1.5°C warming limit, warning that we need to keep our carbon sufficiently at bay enough to avoid a world of ill-fitted consequences.

Unfortunately for us, however, we seem to be edging dangerously closer to the brink. A new study has shown that our rapidly depleting carbon budget has led to a mere 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C before 2030.

Our international carbon budget acts as a gauge, estimating the volume of carbon dioxide emissions that can be released without breaching the temperature thresholds set by the Paris Agreement.

To have a 50% chance of constraining warming to 1.5°C, the world is left with less than 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide spare. If we continue emitting at 2022 levels, which comes up to 40 gigatonnes annually, this budget is set to be exhausted by approximately 2029. This trajectory commits the world to a worrisome warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

For a 50% chance of limiting warming to 2°C — the Paris Agreement's backup threshold — we need to constrain emissions to approximately 1,200 gigatonnes. If carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, this budget could be depleted by 2046, foretelling an ominous future for our planet.

Despite international efforts to curb greenhouse gases, we've only seen a persistent rise in emissions over the past few years. Primarily driven by continual fossil fuel consumption worldwide, the study's new analysis shows that the budget has halved since 2020. While an accurate calculation is difficult, the consideration of new factors has helped this study provide a more real representation of how long we have left.

Amidst these treacherous times, the need for "net-zero" emissions continues to grow more and more pertinent. While factors like melting ice and methane release will continue contributing to rising temperatures, the study also asserts that carbon sinks such as increased vegetation growth could potentially mitigate these effects.

"Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems. This study is yet another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act,” cautions Dr Robin Lamboll, lead author of the study.

The findings of this research have been published in Nature Climate Change and can be accessed here.