These 2 betting charts show one way Brexit and Trump's victory were amazingly similar
Win McNamee/Getty Images
In both cases, the status quo options were rejected and the results came as a huge shock, as they defied what opinion polls and many academics were predicting would happen just hours before people voted.
But there's another way the events were similar: the betting markets.
In fact, as the graphs produced by Smarkets below illustrate, the way the British betting markets moved on the night of the US election was almost identical to how they changed on the night of the EU referendum.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning (GMT), Hillary Clinton began as the overwhelming favourite to win the presidency. However, the likelihood of victory for the Democrat plummeted as states began to declare their results.
The probability of a Clinton victory was rated at over 80% at midnight. By 03:00 a.m. (GMT), Trump had overtaken her and quickly became the front-runner.
Smarkets
Compare this to how betting markets moved on the night of the EU referendum.
Remain began Thursday, June 23 as the overwhelming favourite to win the referendum. However, Leave's chances suddenly began to improve in the early hours of Friday morning.
By 03:00 a.m. (GMT), Leave had overtaken Remain as the most likely outcome, with the odds of a Brexit going through the roof. The similarity between the US Election market and Brexit market was really quite remarkable.
Smarkets
Jason Trost, CEO of the Smarkets betting exchange, told BI over email: "This is why the term prediction market should be used with caution. They do not predict the future but suggest how good a chance either candidate has of winning the election. Just because Trump dropped as low as 8% on the night does not mean he was out of it."
- US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally costing on average less than $20,000 each, report says
- 2 states where home prices are falling because there are too many houses and not enough buyers
- A couple accidentally shipped their cat in an Amazon return package. It arrived safely 6 days later, hundreds of miles away.
- Markets rebound in early trade amid global rally, buying in ICICI Bank and Reliance
- Women in Leadership
- Rupee declines 5 paise to 83.43 against US dollar in early trade
- Election Commission issues notification for sixth phase of Lok Sabha polls
- 6 Coffee recipes you should try this summer
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market