Warren is surging ahead of Biden and starting to look like the 2020 Democratic frontrunner

Mike Blake/Reuters

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren onstage before the start of the third 2020 Democratic US presidential debate in Houston, Texas, on September 12, 2019.

• Sen. Elizabeth Warren is looking more and more like the 2020 Democratic frontrunner as she surges ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden in early primary states and at the national level. 
• Three recent polls show Warren pulling ahead of Biden for the top spot with voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and California. 
• The first two presidential primary contests are in Iowa and New Hampshire. Since 1972, no candidate has won a major party's presidential nomination without finishing in the top two in either state's early contests.
• California is also extremely important as the most delegate-rich state. Additionally, it's moved its primary up to March, making it vital for candidates to perform well there if they want a path to the nomination. 
• Warren is also pulling a head of Biden at the national level. A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Warren at the top of the Democratic field. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is racing ahead of Joe Biden in important early primary states and at the national level, according to multiple recent polls, and is beginning to show signs that she poses a significant challenge to the former vice president's frontrunner status. 

Biden has held onto a solid lead atop a wide, diverse field of Democratic candidates for months, but Warren has been gaining on the former vice president in recent weeks and is now beginning to pull past him.

A new Monmouth University poll conducted in New Hampshire and released on Tuesday puts Warren two points above Biden - 27 to 25. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders, who won a stunning victory in the 2016 presidential primary in New Hampshire, was in third with just 12 percent. 

And a new poll out of Iowa released on Sunday, sponsored by CNN and the Des Moines Register, also puts Warren ahead of Biden by two points - 22 to 20. Sanders, who lost in Iowa in 2016, was also in third in this poll at 11%.

The first two presidential primary contests are in Iowa and New Hampshire and they've long been viewed as barometers for how candidates will perform down the line in elections. When candidates don't do well in either of these states, they tend to drop out. Since 1972, no candidate has won a major party's presidential nomination without finishing in the top two in either state's early contests.

Warren's strong numbers in New Hampshire are a particularly encouraging point for her campaign, given both her and Sanders are New Englanders and will want to win in that region. 

The Massachusetts senator is also pulling ahead of Biden in California, which sends more delegates to vote in the presidential nominating process at the Democratic National Convention than any other state.

Read more: California moved up its presidential primary and it could be the biggest factor in 2020 and beyond

Warren is the first choice of 29% of likely Democratic primary voters in California, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted for the Los Angeles Times. The poll puts her a whopping seven points ahead of Biden, who came in second with 22 percent. 

In September 2017, then-California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation permanently moving the state's presidential primary from June to March. With so many delegates and an earlier primary, it's imperative candidates perform well in California if they want to have a viable path to the presidential nomination. 

Warren is also now pulling ahead of Biden at the national level.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Warren at the top of the Democratic field. The poll showed Warren in first with 27 percent with Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden came in second with 25 percent of the vote. This is a massive leap from the same national poll in August, which showed Biden firmly in first with 32 percent and Warren in second with 19 percent. 

Warren's lead falls within the margin of error but it also marks the first time a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began polling on it in March.

Read more: Bernie Sanders says billionaires shouldn't exist as he rolls out a wealth-tax plan that's even more aggressive than Elizabeth Warren's

"After trailing Biden by double digits since March in the race for the Democratic nomination, Warren catches Biden," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. "We now have a race with two candidates at the top of the field, and they're leaving the rest of the pack behind."

Warren and Biden were followed in the poll by Sanders in third at 16 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in fourth with 7 percent.  

As Biden has stumbled with countless gaffes, poor debate performances, and now declining poll numbers, Warren is looking more and more like the 2020 Democratic frontrunner. With that said, a lot could happen between now and February when the Iowa Democratic caucus takes place.