Omicron surge is causing far less hospitalization than Delta did, South Africa minister says: 1.7% instead of 19%

• Hospitalization rates from South Africa's Omicron surge are around 1.7%, its health minister said.
• That is less than a tenth of the 19% rate seen at a comparable point when Delta was surging.

South Africa is seeing very low rates of hospitalization compared to the Delta wave, its health minister said Friday.

It came as scientists and governments were scrambling to understand the fast-spreading Omicron variant, and work out how hard it is likely to hit.

Only 1.7% of identified COVID-19 cases led to hospitalization in two weeks since South Africa declared a fourth wave, Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press briefing.

That compared to a rate of 19% at a comparable point when the Delta variant was first surging, he said.

"In terms of absolute numbers, we are still at a low level with just over 7,600 patients admitted," Phaahla said.

This dynamic may not persist in other nations, as South Africa has a much younger population than places like the US and Europe, Bloomberg noted.

There is also a high rate of immunity in that population from vaccination and previous exposure to COVID-19.

A recent survey found that 70% to 80% of the population had antibodies against the coronavirus, per Bloomberg.

Deaths are also staying low and hospitalizations seem milder

Even among hospitalized patients, cases seem to be milder than in previous waves, said Waasila Jassat, a researcher with South Africa's National Institute For Communicable Diseases, per Bloomberg.

"For the first time there are more non-severe than severe patients in hospital," said Jassat.

"We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen. They are at very low levels," Jassat said.

Deaths are following suit and staying low, from an average of 0.4 daily new COVID-19 deaths per million on December 3 to 0.48 on December 16, two weeks later.

That compares to a rise from 1.4 on June 10, at the beginning of the Delta wave, to 2.58 two weeks later.

The figures are striking given the large number of infections ripping through South Africa.

Cases per million people reached an all-time high of 386 in the seven days to Friday, more than tripling in the space of a week, per Our World in Data.

Phaahla warned that the low hospitalization rates don't necessarily mean that the virus itself is less dangerous, South Africa's News 24 reported.

It could instead reflect the fact that many people already have some level of immunity after almost two years of the pandemic.

Phaahla encouraged people to socialize over the winter period but follow COVID-19 protocols to limit the strain on the health system.

"Our healthcare workers are physically and emotionally exhausted, so we really plead to all of [you] to think of them as we celebrate this festive season," he said.