Future zoonotic disease pandemics set to turn deadlier, kill 12 times as many people by 2050 due to climate change

The COVID-19 pandemic was a life-altering event worldwide, leaving physical, emotional and financial scars that still linger to this day, likely to persist lifelong for many. While its sheer and unprecedented scale might make the outbreak feel like a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence, many experts insist it was only a mere sign of what is to come.

Now, in a sobering revelation, a new study has issued a dire reinforcement of the same, noting that certain animal-to-human diseases could become exponentially deadlier in the coming decades. Their research suggests that these 'zoonotic' pandemics could claim 12 times more lives in 2050 than they did in 2020, a staggering prediction that demands urgent action to safeguard global public health.

The research notes that epidemics caused by zoonotic diseases, also known as spillovers, may become increasingly frequent in the future. This grim prospect is attributed to two critical factors: climate change and deforestation. As our planet grapples with the consequences of human-induced environmental changes, the risk of these diseases crossing from animals to humans looms large.

To chart future trends, the study looked at the past of four viral pathogens. These included filoviruses such as Ebola and Marburg, SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and the Machupo virus. Despite being the new poster child of pandemics and zoonotic diseases, the study did not encompass COVID-19.

The team found that from 1963 to 2019, 3,150 outbreaks had claimed a staggering 17,232 lives in 24 countries. Filoviruses alone caused 15,771 casualties, predominantly in Africa.

Perhaps the most alarming revelation was the consistent upward trajectory observed by the researchers. Between 1963 and 2019, epidemics triggered by zoonotic diseases increased by a deadly 5% each year, with fatalities rising by a massive 9%.

"If these annual rates of increase continue, we would expect the analysed pathogens to cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 than in 2020," the study warned. These numbers are likely conservative too, considering that COVID-19 was excluded from the analysis.

The deadly recent epidemics and pandemics are no accidents. Zoonotic spillovers are getting worse, growing in how bad they get and how far they spread. Unless we address the root causes of these evils — such as the looming climate crisis and healthcare gaps — and improve cooperation to address the inevitable future pandemics, deadlier upon deadlier pandemics will continue to trudge upon humanity, adding further burden to the already marginalised.

The findings of this study have been published in BMJ Global Health and can be accessed here.