JPMORGAN: Tesla is facing a 'self-feeding downward spiral' - here's how to protect against a stock crash

Screenshot via IIHS

• Tesla's stock price has taken a beating recently, falling almost 30% over the past three weeks.
• The equity derivatives team at JPMorgan has identified the perfect trade to hedge against the worst-case scenario of a Tesla stock crash.
• Watch Tesla trade in real time.

The past three weeks have been enough to worry even the staunchest Tesla bull, as the company's stock has dropped 27% to its lowest level in more than a year.

And it's really been a pick-your-poison situation. Perhaps the biggest concern for investors has been Tesla's slow pace of production for its wildly popular Model 3 sedan. As forecasters expect the worst, reports are trickling out that the numbers do, in fact, look grim, stoking further fears of "production hell."

Complimentary Tech Event

Transform talent with learning that works

Capability development is critical for businesses who want to push the envelope of innovation.Discover how business leaders are strategizing around building talent capabilities and empowering employee transformation.Know More

Investors have also had to contend with the National Transportation Safety Board's newly announced second investigation into a crash involving a Tesla vehicle, as well as the suspension of the autonomous driving programs at Nvidia and Toyota. And just last week, Moody's downgraded the company's debt rating.

Got all that? Well it gets even more dire, at least if you're the equity derivatives team at JPMorgan.

The firm has outlined a worst-case scenario that it says could be triggered by continued equity weakness. Among other things, JPMorgan is worried about the effect further Tesla stock losses will have on the company's ability to refinance the almost $1 billion of debt coming due in 2019.

"A continued stock decline could accelerate equity dilution concerns and create a self-feeding downward spiral in the stock, making our tail risk scenario plausible," Shawn Quigg, an equity derivatives strategist at JPMorgan, wrote in a client note. "We see a scenario where better than expected results may also no longer be enough to keep bullish investors engaged as the reward-risk dynamic appears to have deteriorated. We believe the market is underpricing Tesla tail risk."

Luckily, Quigg has a trade idea. And since the investment vehicles he's suggesting will be used to bet on a further Tesla stock plunge, he's labeled them "crash puts."

He recommends buying June puts with a strike price of $100. Further, Quigg says investors should consider funding the trade with the proceeds of a strategy he recommended early last week - which involved the sale of a calendar put spread.

Note that Quigg's trade would only be "in-the-money" once Tesla declines another 60% from current levels, so it is very much a worst-case scenario hedge.

But considering how Tesla has fared in recent weeks, it's starting to feel like a more distinct possibility.

Markets Insider

Get the latest Tesla stock price here.