The coronavirus crisis will clobber airlines, shipping, hotels, and restaurants, while largely sparing grocery store chains, packaging, and telecommunications, Moody's Investors Service says in a new global report.
In a baseline scenario, the virus will hurt around 16% of US companies, Moody's said, but in a downside scenario, that figure will jump to about 45%.
"Sectors reliant on trade and the free movement of people are most exposed," said Benjamin Nelson, a Moody's vice president and co-author of the report. "Recession risks are rising as coronavirus spreads around the world."
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Moody's said its baseline scenario assumes coronavirus infections rise through the second quarter, but monetary and fiscal measures help support the global economy later in 2020.
Under the downside scenario, monetary and fiscal stimulus can't buoy the global economy, and key economies fall into recession. Oil and gas, manufacturing, and chemicals struggle more in that case.
"A lengthy outbreak would affect economic activity for longer, leading to heightened recessionary dynamics and a more significant demand shock," Moody's said. "A sustained pullback in consumption would hurt corporate earnings, prompt layoffs, and weigh on consumer sentiment."
Moody's members can see more from the report here.