Mobile payments will top $800 billion by 2019, led by Apple Pay and Android Pay

Apple, Google, Samsung, PayPal and others are increasing their focus on mobile wallet products, and as a result paying with phones in stores is going to become a lot more commonplace.

As part of BI Intelligence's ongoing mobile payments coverage, we look at developments in the market, including the late launch of mobile wallet CurrentC, Android Pay, Samsung Pay, and others.

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Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

• In our latest US in-store mobile payments forecast, we find that mobile payment volume will reach $37 billion this year. This is about half our previous estimate for 2015. The downward revision is primarily the result of later-than-expected launches of major mobile wallets from big tech players.
• But by the end of the forecast period in 2019, we expect volume to reach $808 billion, or about 99% of the old estimate. Our forecast is still one of the largest in the industry, and we think mobile payments will catch on faster than other research firms suggest: Mobile payment capability is either already offered or about to be implemented at merchants accounting for a huge chunk of US payment volume.
• The number of people who make a mobile payment at least once a year will grow from nearly 8% of the US consumer population in 2014 to 65% by 2019. The growth in mobile payment users will largely be driven by mobile wallet initiatives from Apple, Samsung, and Google. When these are in place, 90% of the forthcoming smartphones in the US will come with mobile wallets preinstalled.
• The sheer number of mobile wallets available or in the works from Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, CurrentC, Google Wallet, and others will drive mobile payment adoption as well. This will largely be the result of competitive pressure building between the companies and the bandwagon effect. Adoption will be self-reinforcing - the more consumers and retailers that use or offer mobile in-store payments, the more the behavior will catch on among others.

In full, the report:

• Forecasts US mobile payment volume and user base from 2014-2019.
• Provides an in-depth explanation of the assumptions and data behind the forecast.
• Analyses the asymmetric objectives of the key players in the mobile wallet space.
• Provides an update on the mobile payments industry including analysis of Samsung Pay, Google Wallet, and PayPal.

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